Asia Roundup: Dollar edges higher against yen, Asia stocks edge up, Oil climbs on Middle East escalation fears-September 23rd,2024

Market Roundup

•New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) (Aug): -2,203M, forecast  -155M,   -1,016M previous

•New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) (Aug): -9,290M,   -9,350M previous

•New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) (Aug): -2,203M, forecast: -155M,  1,016M previous

•Australia Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  46.7 , 48.5 previous

• Australia Services PMI (Sep) 50.6,   52.5 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

• 07:30 German Composite PMI (Sep)  48.2,   48.4 previous

• 07:30 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  42.4,   42.4 previous

• 07:30 German Services PMI (Sep) 51.1,   51.2 previous

•08:00  EU Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  45.7,   45.8 previous

•08:00  EU S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep)  50.6,   51.0 previous

• 08:00  EU Services PMI (Sep) 52.3, 52.9 previous

• 08:30  UK Composite PMI (Sep)    53.8 previous

• 08:30  UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 52.3,   52.5 previous

• 08:30  UK Services PMI (Sep)  53.5,   53.7 previous

Looking Ahead  Events And Other Releases(GMT)

•No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro declined against the dollar on Monday as investors awaited central bank meetings expected to announce two additional rate cuts, along with key U.S. inflation figures likely to support further easing. Markets were still buoyed by the Federal Reserve's recent half-point rate cut, with futures indicating a 50% chance of another significant move in November. This week, at least nine Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, two governors, and New York Fed President John Williams, will speak. Much hinges on Friday's report of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1198 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1218 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1111 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1049(50%fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Monday as dollar stabilized ahead of central bank meetings U.S. inflation figures that should flash a green light for more easing . This week, at least nine Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, two governors, and New York Fed President John Williams, will speak. The focus will be on Friday's core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed's preferred inflation measure .Investors added to bets favoring a second outsized rate cut after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday he was worried inflation may soon be running substantially below the central bank's 2% target.Meanwhile, the majority of economists polled   anticipate two more 25 bps rate cuts at the Fed's final two meetings this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3331(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3361(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3269(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3196(38.2%fib%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened   against dollar  on Monday bolstered by expectations of a hawkish policy decision on interest rates from RBA. Policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday where it is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.35% and again push back talk of rate cuts this year.A strong jobs report last week led investors to scale back the chance of a rate cut in December to just 64%, compared to 75% before the data. A day after the RBA meeting, inflation data for August is expected to show that headline inflation eased back to the target band of 2%-3%, driven by the government's electricity rebates, with economists expecting an annual rise of 2.7%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6820(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6847(Aug 27th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6761(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6707(50%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the yen on Monday, supported by momentum from the U.S. Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut and signals of more reductions ahead. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged last week and showed no urgency to hike, halting the yen's sharp gains this month. The yen is up 1.4% in September. With Japan closed for Autumnal Equinox Day, trade was mainly driven by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and the gains in equities, commodity currencies, and other risk assets. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.63 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.70(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.36(Lower BB).

Equities Recap

Asian stocks firmed on Monday ahead of central bank meetings that are widely expected to deliver two more rate cuts.

Commodities Recap

Oil prices climbed on Monday, driven by concerns that escalating conflict in the Middle East could disrupt regional supply and expectations that last week's significant U.S. interest rate cut will boost demand.

Brent crude futures  for November were up 60 cents, or 0.8% at $75.09 a barrel at 0415 GMT. U.S. crude futures   for November were up 64 cents, or 0.9%, at $71.64.

Gold prices hovered near record highs on Monday, as traders embraced the momentum generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's bold interest rate cut and signs that further reductions were on the horizon.

Spot gold   steadied near $2,619.37 per ounce, as of 0025 GMT, trading near a record high hit on Friday.U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% lower to $2,643.90.