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China’s October Inflation Slowdown and New Stimulus: What to Expect
Overview
In October, China's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months, while producer price deflation worsened, underscoring ongoing economic struggles. To counter this, China's National People's Congress approved a $1.4 trillion package on Friday to address local government debt. However, direct economic injection was limited, leaving analysts skeptical about immediate improvements in demand and pricing.
October Price Data
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-over-year, down from 0.4% in September, falling short of analyst predictions. Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) saw a modest increase of 0.2%, up from 0.1% in September, reflecting mild consumer spending.
Economist Bruce Pang noted that October’s “Golden Week” holiday affected the perceived impact of recent stimulus, with expectations for gradual CPI growth. Meanwhile, China’s central bank has hinted at further rate cuts in early 2025 to encourage spending.
Producer Price Deflation Deepens
Producer prices, a marker of factory inflation, fell by 2.9% annually in October, hitting the largest drop in nearly a year. Key sectors like petroleum, coal processing, and automotive manufacturing experienced intensified deflationary pressures.
Outlook for Economic Support
Despite Friday’s stimulus approval, some analysts are concerned about the limited measures to spur consumption. Finance Minister Lan Foan announced additional policies, including tax breaks for housing, aiming to stabilize core industries like real estate, where 70% of Chinese household wealth is concentrated.
The road to economic recovery is likely to be gradual, with further support anticipated for 2025.
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