China's M1 money growth accelerated to 15.7% y/y in November, the highest number seen since 2011. Revival of bank loan growth drove M1 higher for five-consecutive-months. Societe Generale expects new yuan loans to have recorded another CNY700bn increase in December.

M2 money supply is also expected to have accelerated to 13.9% y/y in December from 13.7% y/y the previous month, on account of unabated monetary policy support. Meanwhile, the relaxation of issuance regulations probably boosted corporate bond issuance in December. However, credit creation in other channels may have remained soft, as some of it was refinanced by loans and bonds.

"We expect aggregate financing to have risen by CNY900bn (including new yuan loans) in December, i.e. lower than the CNY1018bn recorded in November. Given the softness in non-bank credit, total credit growth should slow to 13.5% y/y in December from 14.1% y/y in the previous month." estimates Societe Generale in a research note