Daily outlook for RUB: Commerzbank

Quotes from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets:

-RUB: A continued complex backdrop in eastern Ukraine, with separatists and Ukrainian forces agreeing to exchange "prisoners" at the weekend, but fighting continuing in some areas. Nonetheless, separatist forces have signed a decree that will lead to the withdrawal of heavy weapons apparently by 7 March, behind the limits of the buffer zone.

-The latter will at least help counter the negative effects of Moody's decision to cut Russia's external and domestic ratings to Ba1 (or sub-investment grade), which comes as a surprise to us from a timing point of view and is the second ratings agency (after S&P) to cut Russian foreign currency bonds to sub-investment grade. A tough week ahead for RUB and UAH as the currencies deal with politics....