Market Roundup
•Swiss Mar Trade Balance 3.542B, 3.220B forecast, 3.662B previous
•Italian Mar Car Registration (YoY) -3.7%, 12.8% previous
•German Mar Car Registration (YoY) -6.2%, 5.4% previous
•German Mar Car Registration (MoM) 21.4%,1.8% previous
•French Mar Car Registration (MoM) 26.2%, 16.6% previous
•EU Feb Current Account 29.5B ,45.2B forecast, 39.4B previous
•EU Feb Current Account n.s.a 31.6B,24.9B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Apr Philly Fed CAPEX Index 23.60 previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 214.25K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,817K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 215K forecast,211K previous
•12:30 US Apr Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 1.5 forecast, 3.2 previous
•12:30 US Apr Philly Fed New Orders 5.4 previous
•12:30 US Apr Philly Fed Employment -9.6 previous
•12:30 US Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid 3.70 previous
•14:00 US Mar Existing Home Sales 4.20M forecast, 4.38M previous
•14:00 US Mar Existing Home Sales (MoM) 9.5% previous
•14:00 US Leading Index (MoM) -0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.270% previous
•15:30 UD 8-Week Bill Auction 5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•13:05 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•13:15 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•13:15 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•17:30 EU ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•21:45 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded against dollar on Thursday as comments by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde boosted euro. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde hinted on Wednesday that it was too early for the ECB to review its 2% inflation target because its fight to rein in price growth was not over yet. The game is not over" Lagarde said, recalling her previous comment that one should not "change the rules of the game halfway through. The euro held steady at $1.0676 after Wednesday's 0.5% gain, pulling away from a five-month low touched on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0690(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0703(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0614 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0584 (Oct 24th 2023 low).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Thursday on growing doubts over the prospect of early rate cuts by the Bank of England . Traders expect the Bank of England to cut rates by 40 basis points in 2024, with the possibility of a first rate cut only in September.BoE policymaker Megan Greene on Wednesday said that the tensions in the Middle East could pose a risk to the inflation outlook, including by heightening inflation expectations. In the first quarter of 2024, a tight labour market and a trade shock from energy prices led analysts to expect that the BoE would likely be cutting rates behind the European Central Bank and the Fed.The backdrop has changed quite radically in recent weeks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2484(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2432(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors were spooked by tensions in the Middle East after Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel on April 13. The United States, Japan and South Korea agreed to consult closely on foreign exchange markets in their first trilateral finance dialogue on Wednesday, acknowledging concerns from Tokyo and Seoul over their currencies' recent sharp declines. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last down 0.11% at 105.84 but still within reach of this week's 5-1/2-month high of 106.51 hit on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9158(April 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9194(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9083 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000(Psychological level9EMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Thursday after finance chiefs of the U.S., Japan and Korea issued a rare warning about currency weakness. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said finance leaders of the G7 reaffirmed their stance that excessive currency volatility was undesirable. The United States, Japan and South Korea agreed to consult closely on foreign exchange markets in their first three-way finance dialogue on Wednesday, in a nod to the concerns of Tokyo and Seoul over their currencies' recent sharp declines. Market participants have raised the bar on possible intervention by Japanese authorities to prop up the yen, now pinpointing the 155 level from 152 previously. Strong resistance can be seen at 154.68(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.72 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 152.78 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged up on Thursday, with industrials lifting the benchmark index following ABB's upbeat results, while Germany-listed Sartorius was on track for its biggest drop in six months after bleak quarterly orders.
At (GMT 12:21),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday on a weaker U.S. dollar and as investors sought a safe-haven on fears the Middle East conflict could widen, dampening headwinds from the prospect of fewer U.S. rate cuts this year.
Spot gold was up 0.9% at $2,382.27 per ounce at 1142 GMT. It had touched an all-time high of $2,431.29 last Friday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,397.70.
Oil prices fell to a three-week low on Thursday, extending losses on hopes of easing tensions in the key producing region of the Middle East, while investors turned their focus to a bleaker demand picture.
Brent futures were down 60 cents, or 0.7%, at $86.69 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures traded 53 cents lower, or 0.6%, at $82.16 a barrel at 1135 GMT. Both were down for a fourth straight session.
