Market Roundup
•UK PPI Mar Output (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK PPI Mar Core CPI (MoM) 0.6%, 0.6% previous
•UK Mar Core CPI (YoY) 4.2%,4.1% forecast,4.5% previous
•UK Mar Core RPI (YoY) 3.3%, 3.5% previous
•UK Mar CPI (MoM) 0.6%, 0.6% previous
•UK Mar CPI, n.s.a 133.00, 132.30 previous
•UK Mar Core PPI Output (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% previous
•UK Mar PPI Input (MoM) -0.1% , 0.1% forecast,-0.4% previous
•UK Mar Core PPI Output (YoY) 0.1%,0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK Mar CPI (YoY) 3.2%,3.1% forecast,3.4% previous
•EU Mar CPI (MoM) 0.8%,0.8% forecast,0.6% previous
•EU Mar CPI (YoY) 2.4%,2.4% forecast,2.6% previous
•EU Mar CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) 0.8%, 0.6% previous
•EU Mar HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 3.1%,3.1% forecast,3.3% previous
•EU Mar Core CPI (MoM) 1.1%,1.1% forecast,0.7% previous
•EU Mar Core CPI (YoY) 2.9%,2.9% forecast,3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Feb Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians -7.59B previous
•12:30 Canada Feb Foreign Securities Purchases 10.10B forecast,8.88B previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production -0.538M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.033M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 1.659M previous
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.600M forecast, 5.841Mrevious
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:45 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•16:00 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded against dollar on Wednesday as investors digested Eurozone inflation data. Euro zone inflation slowed across the board last month, reinforcing expectations for a European Central Bank interest rate cut in June, even as rising energy costs and a weak euro cloud the outlook, final data from Eurostat showed on Wednesday. Inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro currency slowed to 2.4% last month from 2.6% in February, in line with a preliminary estimate released earlier this month. Inflation has fallen quickly over the past year, opening the way for interest rate cuts starting in June, even if the next few months are likely to bring choppy price growth data and a drawn-out return to the 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0665(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0698(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0618 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0584 (Oct 24th 2023 low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Wednesday after UK inflation data suggested less monetary easing by the Bank of England (BoE).British consumer price inflation slowed by less than expected to a two-and-a-half-year low of 3.2% in annual terms in March, down from a 3.4% increase in February.The dollar dipped but was still within striking distance of its 5-1/2-month high after Federal Reserve officials reiterated U.S. interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer. The pound was last up 0.35% against the dollar at $1.24. It was up 0.16% at 85.30 pence per euro, after hitting its highest level since mid-March at 85.21 pence . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2484(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2432(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors stayed cautious at the prospect of U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer.U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that recent inflation data, with three months of upside surprises, had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease policy soon. The central bank may need to keep rates higher for longer than previously thought.Markets have already slashed bets on the number of U.S. rate cuts this year to fewer than two, a sea change from about six cuts predicted at the beginning of the year. The first rate cut is still expected in September, although the market's confidence in that has declined. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9158(April 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9194(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9107 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9082(9EMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Tuesday as the prospect of Japanese government intervention in currency markets loomed. Market participants raised the bar of a possible intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to prop up the Japanese currency, now mentioning the 155 level from the previous 152, even if they believed the BOJ could step in at any time. They flagged that the latest fall in the Japanese currency was in line with fundamentals, reflecting the pricing of Fed policy, and that authorities were analysing not just the recent yen declines but factors that were driving the moves. Market participants believe that as long as the fall in yen is gradual and led by fundamentals, the probability of a BOJ intervention is low. The yen last hovered just below 154.79 per dollar, its weakest level in 34 years. Strong resistance can be seen at 154.68(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.72 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 152.78 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday, though not too far off their one-month low, lifted by healthy quarterly results from consumer companies LVMH and Adidas, while investors kept a cautious watch on developments in the Middle East.
At (GMT 12:21),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.69 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 1.34 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Wednesday, to near record-high levels as risks of the Middle East conflict spreading to other regions brought safe-haven flows into bullion, alongside short-term support from falling U.S. dollar.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,388.56 per ounce, as of 1138 GMT, nearing its all-time high of $2,431.29. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,404.90.
Oil prices slipped for the third straight session on Wednesday as likely higher U.S. commercial inventories weighed, while weaker economic data from China and dimmed prospects of interest rate cuts stoked worries about global demand.
Brent futures for June were down 21 cents, or 0.2%, to $89.81 a barrel at 0915 GMT, while U.S. crude futures for May were down 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $85.17 a barrel.
