Market Roundup
• Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction 2.007%,2.173% previous
• Spanish 6-Month Letras Auction 2.115%, 2.255% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 4.8% previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Mar) 53.6 previous
• 14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Mar) 53.2 forecast, 55.3 previous
•17:00 US 3-Years Note Auction 3.908% previous
• 20:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 6.037M previous
Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)
•18:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Tuesday as traders weighed up U.S. trade policy and hoped negotiations with Washington could help avert an escalating dispute.The European Commission proposed a zero-for-zero tariff deal on Monday as EU ministers prioritized talks ahead of President Trump's 20% tariff on the EU, set to take effect Wednesday.On Tuesday, ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras warned that higher inflation and a global trade war triggered by U.S. tariffs could delay the normalization of euro zone monetary policy.The market will be closely watching how other U.S. trading partners respond to the tariffs imposed by the U.S. These reactions could include retaliatory tariffs, trade restrictions, or diplomatic negotiations aimed at countering the impact. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1053(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1168(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0856(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0783(April 2nd low).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors sought signs of relief amidst the ongoing global trade war. Hopes that countries such as Japan, the UK, Europe, and Israel were looking to negotiate trade deals with the U.S. further boosted risk-taking sentiment. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated on Monday that his government’s initial response to the higher tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump should not involve easing public borrowing rules. On the same day, the European Commission proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal to prevent a trade war, with EU ministers agreeing to prioritize negotiations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2979(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3165(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2812(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2686(March 4th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded from a five-year low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, fueled by hopes that Washington may be willing to negotiate its aggressive tariff policies. Trump's advisers signaled that he is open to discussions with countries trying to avoid tariffs as high as 50%, set to take effect on Wednesday. White House economic adviser Stephen Miran encouraged countries seeking to bypass high reciprocal tariffs to present offers directly to President Trump. However, markets remain concerned that Trump's tariff policies could lead to global economic pain, particularly affecting China, Australia's largest export market. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6055(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6147 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5943(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as ongoing trade-related uncertainty continued to boost demand for the safe-haven yen. Last week, President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S., along with higher duties on several other countries, including key U.S. trading partners. This move shook global markets and left U.S. allies bewildered. Trump also mentioned that Japan would send a delegation to discuss trade after speaking with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba earlier on Monday. During their call, the Japanese Prime Minister expressed deep disappointment with the tariff policies and urged Trump to reconsider. Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports and a 24% reciprocal tariff on other Japanese goods is expected to severely impact Japan's export-driven economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.55(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.02(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rebounded from 14-month lows on Tuesday following four consecutive sessions of heavy selling, although investor sentiment remained fragile and sensitive to ongoing tariff-related developments.
At GMT (12:16) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 2.50 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 2.71 percent, France’s CAC was up by 2.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, supported by the ongoing global trade war between the U.S. and its key trading partners, along with a weaker dollar.
Spot gold rose 1% to $3,013.34 an ounce by 1125 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since March 13 on Monday. U.S. gold futures gained 1.9% to $3,028.40.
Oil prices remained largely unchanged on Tuesday, staying near four-year lows, as a recovery in equity markets failed to offset mounting recession concerns driven by the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies.
Brent futures were up 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $64.34 a barrel at 0913 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $60.88.
