The USD was the main victim of the development of market uncertanity appeared in Chinese economy. It is a matter to discuss whether the developments in China really will affect the US economy to the extent the market is assuming. Commerzbank says, the Fed finds itself in a catch 22 situation as it faces the following choice:
- It really does leave its key rate unchanged at the next meeting thus confirming the market that its concerns regarding developments in China are justified. By doing that it also runs the risk of further fueling concerns with this step ("if the Fed postpones the rate hike cycle due to developments in China the situation has to be really bad").
- It plays down the risks in China and hikes its key rate at the next meeting. The problem with that is: first of all it would catch the market completely on the wrong footing, as at pre-sent the market does not expect a rate step in September. On the other hand the market might judge it to be a policy mistake which would fuel economic concerns even further.


ANZ and Westpac Forecast Two RBA Rate Hikes in March and May 2026
RBA Set to Hike Rates Again Amid Inflation Surge and Global Uncertainty
RBA Set for Back-to-Back Rate Hikes, Westpac Forecasts
Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade as Oil Prices Stoke Inflation Fears
RBA Raises Cash Rate to 4.10% in Closest Vote Since Transparent Voting Began
Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX
Bank of Japan Expected to Hold Rates at 0.75% Before June Hike Amid Middle East War Uncertainty 



