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FedEx (NYSE: FDX) shares dropped 11% on Friday after the delivery giant slashed its fiscal 2025 earnings forecast, intensifying concerns over the U.S. industrial economy and global trade uncertainty. CEO Raj Subramaniam cited a "challenging operating environment" and declining business-to-business volumes, a higher-margin segment hit hard by industrial sector weakness.
The revised earnings guidance now ranges between $18.00 and $18.60 per share, down from the previous estimate of $19 to $20. While analysts anticipated a cut, the extent of the revision surprised markets. At least 10 brokerages lowered their price targets following the news.
FedEx shares hit their lowest point in nearly two years. As a key player in global logistics, FedEx, along with UPS and DHL, is often seen as a bellwether for economic health. On Friday, UPS shares dipped 0.4%, and DHL dropped 2.5%.
The ongoing uncertainty driven by former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on major U.S. trading partners has made companies more cautious with spending, impacting shipping volumes. Analysts warn these trade tensions could trigger a broader economic slowdown, reducing demand for freight and delivery services.
Morgan Stanley noted that FedEx’s latest results and forecast reduction could heighten fears of long-term structural challenges in the parcel industry, overshadowing cost-cutting efforts. A shift in consumer behavior is also playing a role, as lower-margin e-commerce shipments from platforms like Temu and Shein continue to outpace traditional business shipments.
Evercore ISI highlighted that the depth of the forecast cut, particularly with one quarter remaining, was greater than expected. With market headwinds and structural changes mounting, investors are bracing for a turbulent road ahead for FedEx and the broader logistics sector.
