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Crude oil: US oil production rose to the highest level in over a year, leaving oil prices weaker on the day after the US EIA released its data. US production rose 36,000 barrels per day, the most since January 2016 and the Baker Hughes rig count of 672 is the highest since August 2015. WIT and Brent prices fell 1.2% and 1.3% respectively.
Hence, we don’t encourage long-term short build ups anymore; instead, we encourage longs in WTI crude of near-month expiries for targets of 54.48 levels & 55.07 with strict stop loss of 51.33 levels, thereby, the trade carries attractive risk reward ratio.
Precious metals: Gold prices rose sharply after comments from President Trump about the USD strength. Spot rose 1.0% to USD1,286 oz to the highest level since November 2016. Silver was also higher, but industrial precious metals fell.
Gold for June delivery was at $1,287.55 on the Comex division of the NYME by 08.00 GMT, after going as high as $1,290.05 overnight, the most since November 9.
Industrial metals: Base metals closed broadly weaker with copper at a three-month low and tin falling the most on the session in nine months. Copper fell 2.5% to USD2, 625 per pound, its lowest level since January. Aluminum, nickel, lead and tin also closed lower. The industrial metals index is now over 4% lower in April, but this comes after a multi- month rally.
Go long Jul’17 LME Copper While we do expect the copper price to eventually weaken in steps to $5,000/t by the end of the year, we don’t expect that weakness just yet. With supply still bleeding and stronger 2Q demand ahead of us, we expect the metal to claw back some of its recent losses and trade back up to average $6,000/t in 2Q.
In essence, we expect cathode oversupply to decline in 2Q as a concentrate gap opens and feeds into cathode production cuts. Seasonally-strong second quarter demand should also help, further drawing down inventories and supporting prices.
Went long Jul’17 LME copper at a price of $5,771.50/t on April 7, 2017. Trade target is $6,640/t with a stop loss at $5,480/t. Marked to market on April 7, 2017, at $5,817/t for a gain of $45.50/t or 0.8%.
