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Gold has lost more than $10 after a sharp jump till $1318 after better than expected U.S CPI data. US CPI came unchanged at 0.0% compared to -0.1% previous month and core CPI rose 2.2% in Jan compared to forecast of 2.1%. The yellow metal hits low of $1305.13 and is currently tracing around $1308.92. Gold was one the best performer in Jan and has jumped more than $50 on account of dovish Fed and global uncertainty.
The major three factors that drive gold prices
US dollar Index: bullish. DXY has recovered once gain after minor decline. The index breaks 97.20 high made on Feb 12th and jumped till 97.26.The index’s minor resistance is around 97.25 and any break above targets 97.50/97.71.Any further bullish continuation only above 97.78. (negative for gold).
USD/JPY: Strong USD/JPY is trading higher for fourth consecutive day and jumped more than 100 pips in this week.The immediate resistance is around 111.40 and break above targets 112. It is currently trading around 111.01. Slightly negative for gold.
US 10 year yield : US 10 year yield has halted its down trend and is trading higher for fourth consecutive day.The yield has been trading weak for past two months and lost nearly 22% from high of 3.25%.It is currently trading around 2.713%.slightly negative for Gold.
US 2 year yield: It is trading around 2.54%. The spread between US 10 year and 2 year has declined to 18bpbs from 30 basis point. The spread between 5 year and 2- year yield has inverted (US 2 year yield trading above US 5 year yield).
Gold technical
On the higher side, yellow metal is facing near term resistance around $1315 and break above will take the gold to next level till $1321/$1330.The yellow metal should break above $1335 for further bullishness.
The near term support is around $1305 and any violation below will drag the commodity down till $1298 (20- day MA)/$1295.Any break below $1276 confirms minor weakness.
It is good to buy above $1315 with SL around $1309 for the TP of $1334.
