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The lira continued its rally on Friday amidst the broader EM rally after the US removed sanctions which had frozen the assets of Turkish interior and justice ministers; and Turkey reciprocated by removing counter-sanctions on two US ministers.
In our view, however, such easing of sanctions should have been fully anticipated after pastor Brunson was released – it is difficult to see what is new information here; whatever sanction has not yet been lifted, for example the steel tariff, will also be lifted soon – when that happens, it should not come as a surprise to anyone.
This morning, the improving geo-politics will square off against bad news from the CPI data: the last reading for inflation had been 24.5%; today, the market expects something in the 24.3%-24.7% range (depending on survey; local media surveys are slightly more optimistic than Bloomberg's). CBT's latest forecast revision to 23.5% for December 2018 also tells us that the central bank does not expect inflation to improve materially by year-end. What is more, retail price data from Istanbul showed hefty acceleration in October vs September. All these indicators reiterate our message from Friday's daily: by not raising rates last month, CBT accepted a zero real-interest rate for the months ahead, and by doing so, chose to fall behind the curve.
Technically, USDTRY current price on daily terms, has been sliding below DMAs through falling wedge, while both leading and lagging indicators are in tandem with ongoing slumps. While current intermediate trend slides below 21EMAs, both leading and lagging indicators on this timeframe are also in sync with the downtrend (refer weekly plotting).
Trade tip: At spot reference: 5.4044 levels, contemplating above driving factors, on hedging grounds we initiate RV trade - 3m USDTRY put up-and-in Short 1m put. Courtesy: TradingView, Commerzbank
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index has shown -120 (which is bearish), while articulating at 14:12 GMT.
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
