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Greece's track record on program implementation probably hinders IMF participation. It is more likely than not to remain involved, providing financial and technical assistance once OSI is awarded owing to political concerns mainly emanating from Germany, suggests Barclays.
The EUR17bn committed but yet to be disbursed in the IMF second program, equals about 20% of the new third bailout (€86bn), while the IMF's share in the second bailout was c.12% (ie, €19.8bn out of €144.7bn).
According to the IMF's rules, a program needs to have a good performance on the policy conditionality front, sovereign solvency must be satisfied, and the country must have adequate funding over the next 12 months. Barclays notes, among the four requirements that this includes, Greece did not fulfil (in August):
- 1) its commitment to implement structural reform immediately owing to political instability (and lack of program ownership)
- 2) public debt sustainability.
The IMF has said it received a request for a new program that replaces the second program as Greece will not be able to achieve the objectives set for March 2016. The IMF has said the maturity of this program would be more or less aligned with that of the ESM.
