Poland's CPI set to turn positive in Q1 2016

Another decrease is seen in oil prices, which declined 2.4% month-on-month. In Poland, there is a seasonal increase in clothing and footwear prices, which is due to winter.

"We estimate deflation in October of -0.7%, in line with the market consensus and slightly above the flash CPI estimate (-0.8% yoy). In our view, the downside risk may come from lower-than-expected growth in food prices (we estimate 0.4% mom) and in transport prices (- 1.5% mom)", says Societe Generale in a research note. 

The transport prices still reduce about 0.95pp from the figure and stay as the main factor behind the deflation. Poland's CPI is likely to turn positive in first quarter of 2016.