Qantas Airways Shares Drop to Six-Month Low After Cutting Revenue Forecast

Qantas Airways (ASX:QAN) saw its shares tumble to a near six-month low on Friday after the Australian airline revised its first-half fiscal 2026 revenue outlook downward, citing weaker corporate travel demand and rising fuel costs. The stock fell as much as 4.3% to A$9.74, marking its lowest level since mid-May.

In a market update, Qantas said its Group Domestic unit revenue is now projected to increase by about 3%, which is at the lower end of the previous forecast range provided in August. The airline attributed the softer outlook to slower-than-expected growth in non-resource corporate travel, reflecting cautious spending among businesses amid broader economic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the company maintained its Group International revenue guidance of 2–3% growth. However, Qantas noted that international capacity will be slightly lower than anticipated due to delays in returning its A380 fleet to service. Despite this, demand for international routes remains stable, and the airline stated that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has not materially affected travel demand.

Fuel costs continue to be a significant challenge for Qantas, with the carrier warning that jet fuel expenses are expected to reach approximately A$2.62 billion in the first half of the fiscal year. Elevated refining margins and additional carbon compliance costs are expected to pressure profitability, highlighting the ongoing headwinds facing the aviation sector.

Qantas’s updated guidance underscores the fragile balance airlines face between recovering travel demand and persistent operational costs. Investors are closely watching how the flag carrier navigates these challenges, particularly as competition intensifies and global fuel markets remain volatile.