Russia’s inflation decelerate in Q1 16

Russia experienced a worsen inflation outlook in October as it was 15.6% y/y. The sharp decline is due to base effects while RUB has been stabilized.

Central Bank Governor, Nabiullina gave a hint of initiating rate cut at one of the next three meetings (11 December, 29 January, or 18 March). Whereas, analysts foresee the rate cut to start in December. 

"In November, we think inflation will narrow to 14.8% y/y, the first major decline since Q2 15 (up 0.65% during the month) and the deceleration will continue in December and Q1 16, in our view", says Barclays in a research note.