Market Roundup
- Sterling inches up to 7-year high of 73.17 pence per euro after BoE's Forbes comments.
- Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem: It would not be logical if EU commission presided over Euro Zone finance ministers meetings; even if there is no follow-up programme in Greece after 4 months, there will still be post-programme surveillance; euro zone ministers could consider further debt relief measures if Greece meets all criteria.
- Greek finmin sent list with reform measures to Eurogroup, ECB, IMF, EU commission around midnight.
- German Econ Min Gabriel says want to keep Greece in Euro Zone and continue help, condition is to continue reforms.
- Bank of England's Carney says BoE can look through one-off downward shocks to inflation from oil price fall.
- Bank of England's Carney: Challenges in the euro zone are a "serious issue" for UK; if Greece were to exit euro zone in disorderly manner, would hit asset prices and confidence.
- Bank of England's Forbes says risks from inflation, asset bubbles, consumption and debt are moderate, could deteriorate quickly.
- European Union Jan Inflation Ex-Tobacco MM decreases to -1.6 % vs previous -0.10 %.
- European Union Jan Inflation Final MM decreases to -1.6 % (consensus -1.6 %) vs previous -0.1 %.
- France Feb Business Climate stays flat at 99 (consensus 99 ) vs previous 99.
- Germany Q4 GDP Detailed YY stays flat at 1.6 % (consensus 1.5 %) vs previous 1.6 %.
- Germany Q4 GDP Detailed QQ stays flat at 0.7 % (consensus 0.7 %) vs previous 0.7 %.
- Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls 4.231 mln in Q4 vs 4.227 mln in previous quarter.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0855 ET/1355 GMT) US Redbook Same St Sales Index Feb 21 wk previous +3.2% y/y
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) US Markit Services PMI Feb previous 54.2
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Consumer Confidence Feb consensus 100.0, previous 102.9
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey Feb
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Feb previous 10
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) Richmond Fed Services Revenues Feb previous 14
- (1030 ET/1530 GMT) Dallas Fed Service Sector Outook Feb previous -2.8
Key Events Ahead
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) EuroGroup conference call on Greece
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) Fed Chair Yellen testifies on monetary policy at Senate Bkg Committee
FX Recap
EUR/USD traded in the red around 1.1321 levels. Markets now await a key Fed speech and the Eurogroup's response to Greek reforms list. Option Expiries at 1.1280-85 (1.35B), 1.1300 (1.35B), 1.1315 (699M).
USD/JPY broke above the minor resistance at 119.40 levels and is currently trading around 119.53. It could extend its move upward till 120/120.49. Overall trend is bullish as long as support 118.20 holds. The pair's minor support is around 118.70 (ichimoku cloud bottom) and break below 118.70 will target 118.20/116.80. Option Expiries at 117.50 (675M), 118.00 (428M), 119.75 (517M), 120.00 (1.2B).
AUD/USD has retreated after making double top around 0.7845 and currently trades at 0.7753 levels. Pair sees major support at 0.7750. Any break below will invalidate the bullish trend and further fall till 0.7690/0.7640 cannot be ruled out. The pair's minor resistance around 0.78450 and above will target 0.7875/0. Expiries at 0.7800-10 (478M).
GBP/USD traded around 1.5440/45 and is holding above the 1.5400 level following Carney's comments on the recent Quarterly Inflation Report. Some exciting price action is expected ahead in the session on Yellen's testimony. Next support is seen at 1.5333 and further at 1.5317. On the flipside, a break above 1.5480 could push the pair to 1.5490 and then at 1.5500.
