Market Roundup
•US Mar Goods Trade Balance -91.83B,-91.10B forecast,-91.84B previous
•Canada Feb Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 4.53%,3.90% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 207K,214K forecast, 212K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,781K,1,814K forecast,1,812K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 207K,214.50K previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.4%,0.2%forecast,0.5% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q1) 3.4%,1.8% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 3.1%,3.0% forecast, 1.7% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q1) 3.70%,3.40% forecast,2.00% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 1.6%,2.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US Mar Pending Home Sales Index 78.2, 75.6 previous
•US Mar Pending Home Sales (MoM) 3.4%,0.3% forecast,1.6% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage92B, 87B forecast,50B previous
•US Apr KC Fed Composite Index -8,-5 forecast,-7 previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.275%, 5.275% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan April CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) 0.2% previous
•23:30 Japan CPI (YoY) 2.7% forecast, 2.9% previous
•23:30 Japan April Tokyo CPI (YoY) 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
•23:30 Japan April Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 2.2% forecast, 2.4% previous
•01:30 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q1) 0.9% previous
•01:30 Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 5.6% previous
•01:30 Australia PPI (YoY) (Q1) 4.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•02:30 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
•02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
•03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% forecast, 0.10% previous
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro stretched against dollar on Thursday as dollar dipped after data showed unexpected slowing in economic growth and an unwelcome inflation acceleration, potentially tying the Federal Reserve's hands on a pivot to easier interest rates. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the January-March period, slower than the 2.4% rate expected by economists poll. The report also showed that underlying inflation as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7% in the first quarter, eclipsing forecasts for a 3.4% rise. The euro went up 0.26% to $1.0728. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0739(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0780 (50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0677(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0648 (April 23rd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose versus the dollar as investors assessed the Bank of England's monetary policy path after recent mixed signals from policymakers.The pound dropped late last week and on Monday versus the greenback as Governor Andrew Bailey said that inflation was broadly declining in line with BoE forecasts, which would indicate that interest rates might fall more quickly than the market currently expects. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Tuesday that rate cuts remained some way off, even if the passage of time and an absence of bad news on inflation had brought them closer.Some analysts argued that recent British economic data would suggest a later rather than earlier start of the BoE monetary easing cycle. Sterling was up 0.4% at $1.2519, having risen 0.8% on Tuesday, the most in one day since mid-December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2525 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2588(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2445(23.6 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2406 (April 16th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as domestic data showed wage growth picking up and ahead of U.S. inflation data that could offer clues on the prospect of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose as concern about fuel demand was offset by worries of supply disruptions. U.S. crude oil futures settled 0.9% higher at $83.57 a barrel. The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3660 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.21 U.S. cents, clawing back all of the previous day's decline.Gains for the loonie came as the U.S. dollar eased against most currencies after data showed the U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly slow pace and inflation came in hotter than expected in the first quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3673 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3700(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3634 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3559 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose to fresh 34 year high against yen against on Thursday dollar was hardly shaken against the beleaguered yen despite mixed US data . BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to be mindful of an episode in 2022, when his predecessor's dovish remarks triggered a yen plunge that forced Tokyo to intervene to prop up the currency. However, the prospect of Japanese rates staying low for an extended period and expectations for a delayed start to U.S. rate cuts have continued to push down the yen.Analysts expect the BOJ meeting to deliver a marginally hawkish outcome, with the central bank possibly just announcing a modest decline in its bond buying plans. On Thursday, the greenback rose to a 34-year high of 155.74 yen and was last 0.2% higher at 155.62 .Strong resistance can be seen at 155.00 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.13 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.34 (5 EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 153.63 (38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks dropped on Thursday, hit by bleak earnings from consumer giant Nestle and Dutch digital payments firm Adyen, while sentiment also took a hit following weak economic growth data from the world's largest economy the United States.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.35 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.17 percent.
Wall Street stocks closed lower on Thursday as markets were stunned by data showing slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth and persistent inflation, coupled with a sell-off in large cap stocks triggered by disappointing results from Meta Platforms.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.98 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.46 percent, Nasdaq finished the down by 0.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices settled higher on Thursday on worries of supply disruptions in Middle East supply as Israel stepped up airstrikes on Gaza's Rafah and on the U.S. Treasury secretary's comments that the economy was performing well.
Brent crude futures settled 99 cents, or 1.1%, higher at $89.01 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures was up 76 cents, or 09%, at $83.57.
