Weekly outlook for EUR: Barclays

Quotes from Barclays Capital:

-Technicalities of the Greek-EU extension program are likely to dominate the agenda in the coming week. The agreed four-month extension is conditional on the Greek government's commitment to implement previously agreed structural reforms and submit a clear outline of planned measures on Monday. As a result, the extent to which the Greek government is willing to accept all attached conditionalities will likely be the key focus.

-On the data front, market emphasis will be on euro area inflation and M3 data. We are slightly above the consensus on German, Italy, and Spanish preliminary consumer price data (all on Friday) for February. We forecast German HICP inflation to have edged up to -0.3% y/y (January: -0.5%), consumer prices in Italy to have increased to -0.3% y/y (January: -0.5%), and Spanish HICP inflation to have risen to -1.4% (January: -1.5%).

-Moreover, we and the consensus expect euro area final and core HICP inflation (Tuesday) to be confirmed at -0.6% and +0.6%, respectively, in January. However, we see risks heavily skewed to the downside, as we track -0.65% for headline HICP inflation. Moreover, we expect euro area M3 data (Thursday) to edge up and better loan growth momentum in the January figures.