Notes from Standard Chartered Research:
- In considering Chair Yellen's likely tone at her semi-annual congressional testimony on 24 February, January's minutes may be misleading as the FOMC did not have the bumper January payroll data on hand.
- We think this moves the needle somewhat in terms of the Fed's risk assessment and, therefore, it will be difficult for Yellen to sound as dovish as the minutes were.
- We expect (relatively) hawkish testimony from Fed Chair Yellen to Congress
- With January's payroll in mind, Yellen could keep an upbeat outlook on the economy
- Job growth is no longer the issue; key policy question now is when inflation bottoms
