An Oct. 19 analysis by the Institute for Progress (IFP) estimates a 6.5-month gap in general capabilities between top Chinese models and the U.S. frontier; a separate March 2026 ranking showed a 2.7% score difference.
IFP based its estimate on Epoch AI's Epoch Capabilities Index, which combines several benchmarks. It lined up the strongest model results from both countries by release date, then looked back along the U.S. performance curve to find when it reached the score of China's latest frontier model. The result estimates a lag between capability trends, rather than a same-day comparison of the countries' newest releases.
IFP's separate software engineering comparison produced a 6.6-month estimate. The institute used METR version 1.0 scores for Chinese models because version 1.1 updated U.S. results but did not include Chinese systems. IFP said applying version 1.1 to Chinese models could raise their scores and reduce that estimated gap.
Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) reported that Claude Opus 4.6 scored 1,503 points and Dola-Seed-2.0 Preview scored 1,464 on Arena's human-vote ranking in March 2026. The difference was 39 points, or 2.7%. Arena captures model scores at one point in time, while IFP's estimate draws on benchmark performance over time.
IFP points to access to AI chips and model distillation as factors shaping the gap. Stanford HAI's report also says DeepSeek-R1 briefly matched the leading U.S. model in February 2025.
IFP modeled restrictions on Chinese companies' remote access to overseas training clusters, chip controls and measures to curb distillation. The institute estimates that, if implemented today, the package could widen the U.S. lead by an additional 6.6 months by the end of 2027. IFP describes that result as a broad scenario estimate, not a precise forecast. It says a wider U.S. lead could benefit the U.S. economy and policymakers, while arguing that chip sales would likely shift to other buyers rather than reduce overall U.S. sales. The modeled effects run through the end of 2027.
