ADP Bombshell: US Private Jobs Crawl at Just 22K — Far Below Expectations, NFP Jitters Rise

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: US private payrolls increased by only 22,000 in January 2026, considerably less than the 46,000–48,000 predicted and the previous revised +37,000 (Dec 2025), pointing to a marked hiring slowdown. Health/education created 74,000 jobs, but manufacturing, professional services, and big businesses (more than 500 workers) shed employment, with year-over-year pay increase fixed at 4.5%. Amid tariff uncertainties and fiscal reductions, this shows 2025's slowdown—398k total jobs against 771k in 2024.

PMI for ISM services: At 53.8%, the ISM Services PMI for January 2026 maintained its level from December's high since October 2024, hence pointing toward ongoing growth over 50. While New Orders fell to 53.1% and Employment edged to 50.3% (scarcely increasing), Business Activity climbed to 57.4%, highest since Oct 2024. With all major subindexes growing for the first time since May 2022, respondents observed fiscal year increases cancelled by influenza season, weather, and trade concerns.

Released February 4, ADP's poor print pressured pre-NFP sentiment, indicating cooling labor during Fed watch for cuts, whereas ISM's stability lessened recession concerns in services (80% GDP). Projections for Feb ISM Services PMI sit at 53.5.