Artificial intelligence added about 10% to euro area companies' capital spending plans for this year, supporting investment as businesses adopted the technology, the European Central Bank's Philip R. Lane said.
AI-related demand helped sustain economic activity over the past two years, Lane said in “Philip R. Lane: AI adoption in Europe”, published by the central bank on Oct. 30. He linked that support to production of computers, electronics and information and communication services.
Lane drew on central bank business surveys, investment accounts, trade figures and securities holdings to assess AI adoption and its financial effects. The data covered different periods, including investment since 2014, trade through 2026 and company stock performance since January 2023.
The central bank put growth in euro area digital investment since 2014 at 73% after adjusting for inflation. Lane said most of that investment went into assets such as software and databases, while data centres accounted for a relatively small share.
The central bank estimated that digital investment reached 3.3% of economic output by the first half of 2026, compared with about 2.3% in 2014. Its estimate extended annual accounts available through 2024 using digital services production data.
Lane said AI was the main driver of global goods trade over the past year, with euro area exports and imports of related equipment growing quickly. He identified particular growth in hardware used directly for computing, storage and networking in data centres.
AI-related price increases contributed to higher goods inflation, but their effect on total consumer inflation was limited, Lane said. The central bank calculated that goods exposed to AI accounted for 3.4% of the consumer price basket.
Lane also linked rising software licence imports from the United States since 2022 to increased purchases of AI licences from US companies. That breakdown relied partly on US Bureau of Economic Analysis figures for 2025, whose shares the central bank also applied to 2026.
European investors were major buyers of US technology shares, while listed European technology companies also benefited from rising valuations, Lane said. The central bank's analysis through Oct. 20 associated greater AI intensity with stronger stock returns and growth in revenue, operating margins and earnings per share.
Lane said European investors increased purchases of euro-denominated bonds issued by US companies while reducing purchases of US Treasury bonds. He said AI adoption would help determine Europe's productivity growth in coming years, even though frontier model development took place mainly in the United States and China.
