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Voters in Germany’s eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt are heading to the polls on Sunday in a closely watched election that could deliver a historic victory for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Led by 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD has maintained a commanding lead in opinion polls for months. Recent surveys put the party at just over 40%, well ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which stands at around 23%.
The AfD could potentially secure an absolute majority, particularly if several smaller parties fail to meet Germany’s 5% threshold for entering parliament. Such an outcome would allow the party to govern alone and overcome the longstanding political “firewall” under which mainstream German parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD.
Winning an outright majority remains difficult under Germany’s proportional electoral system, which generally encourages coalition governments. If the AfD falls short, incumbent state premier Sven Schulze of the CDU is considered the most likely candidate to lead the next administration.
The Saxony-Anhalt election is also being viewed as an important test for Merz’s deeply unpopular federal government. The chancellor has adopted tougher positions on migration and security as his CDU seeks to counter the AfD’s growing support.
For the AfD, victory would strengthen its ambitions ahead of Germany’s next federal election, scheduled for 2029.
“No matter the outcome of tomorrow’s election, we have already made history,” Siegmund told supporters at a final campaign rally in Magdeburg on Saturday. He said the political movement gaining momentum in Saxony-Anhalt and across Germany “can no longer be stopped.”
Coalition negotiations could become complicated if the AfD fails to win a majority. Polls indicate the FDP may fall below the 5% threshold, while the SPD is polling below 10%. The left-wing BSW could also fail to enter parliament.
A CDU coalition with the SPD and Greens may not command enough seats, while the CDU has ruled out governing with the Left Party. That could leave Schulze pursuing a minority government supported indirectly by the Left, similar to an arrangement previously used in neighboring Thuringia.
Initial Saxony-Anhalt election results are expected shortly after polls close at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday.
