The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) projects that 19.2 million people in Afghanistan will face acute food insecurity from November 2026 through April 2027, as the winter lean season begins.
The IPC's analysis counted 15.9 million people facing Crisis level or worse in September and October 2026, including 3.4 million in Emergency conditions. The U.N. described that earlier total as nearly one in three Afghans. For the coming period, the IPC forecasts 5 million people in Phase 4, or Emergency. That classification is distinct from a famine classification.
The IPC's separate malnutrition outlook estimates that 4.04 million children ages 6 to 59 months will need treatment for acute malnutrition in 2027. Nearly 1.1 million are expected to have severe acute malnutrition. The IPC said child malnutrition reached its highest recorded level for the August-October period.
Roughly one-third of nutrition sites have closed or suspended services, according to the IPC snapshot. Olga Cherevko, Afghanistan spokesperson for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), said at an Oct. 20 briefing that funding cuts contributed to the closures.
Cherevko said conflict and drought, along with economic hardship and other shocks, have left families with less ability to cope. Better rainfall and agricultural production in 2026 improved food availability, she said, but affordability remains a problem. The IPC also points to weak purchasing power and reduced aid as factors leaving people exposed, particularly landless households, casual laborers, returnees and children.
Cherevko said humanitarian relief can save lives but cannot indefinitely replace economic opportunity and public services. She urged agencies to maintain health, nutrition and water services through winter, help farmers before planting windows close, deliver food and protect livestock.
The IPC's next food-insecurity projection covers May through September 2027; its next malnutrition projection covers April through July.
