Market Roundup
•Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q4): -0.6%, 0.0% forecast, 2.4% previous.
•Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q4): -0.2%, 0.6% previous.
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Dec): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•Canada GDP (YoY) (Q4): 0.72%, 1.58% previous.
•US Core PPI (MoM) (Jan): 0.8%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q4): 0.70%, 0.90% previous.
•US Core PPI (YoY) (Jan): 3.6%, 3.0% forecast, 3.3% previous.
•US PPI (YoY) (Jan): 2.9%, 2.6% forecast, 3.0% previous.
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Jan): 0.3%, 0.3% previous.
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Jan): 3.4%, 3.5% previous.
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan): 0.0%, 0.2% previous.
•US Chicago PMI (Feb): 57.7, 52.0 forecast, 54.0 previous.
•US Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous.
•Canada Budget Balance (Dec): 0.20B, -8.02B previous.
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): 3.0%, 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous.
•US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 407, 409 previous.
•US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 550, 551 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as investors assessed key German inflation data at the close of a busy week.Germany’s inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 2% in February, down from 2.1% in January, as lower energy prices weighed on overall price growth, according to provisional data. Economists polled by Reuters had expected inflation, harmonized across the European Union, to remain unchanged. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.5%.Other data released Friday painted a mixed picture for Germany’s economy, with unemployment staying above 3 million, reflecting the strain from prolonged stagnation in Europe’s largest economy..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1821(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1872(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1760(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1737(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped on Friday an election in northern England brought a resounding defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour party.The loss of one of Labour's safest seats, in the biggest electoral test in almost a year, piles further pressure on Starmer to prove that he should keep his job following weeks of political turmoil and calls for him to resign.The Green Party's Hannah Spencer won the contest for the vacant parliamentary seat of Gorton and Denton, with Nigel Farage's populist Reform UK party coming second, and Labour pushed into third place. The defeat comes after Starmer faced the most dangerous moment of his premiership this month when some of his lawmakers said he should resign over his decision to appoint Labour veteran Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, despite his links to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3537(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3444(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3368(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened hit 11-day highon Friday as broad-based declines for the greenback offset domestic data that showed the economy contracting in the fourth quarter. Canada's gross domestic product fell at an annualized pace of 0.6% in the October-December quarter as manufacturers dipped heavily into inventories to meet demand, closing out the slowest year of growth for the country since 2020. Economists and the Bank of Canada had expected a flat reading. The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.3630 per U.S. dollar, or 73.37 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest level since February 16 at 1.3626. Among the Group of 10 currencies, only the safe-haven Swiss franc posted stronger gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3686 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3728(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3622(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3563 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as the Japanese yen drew safe-haven interest amid geopolitical tensions and extended U.S.–Iran nuclear talks. The U.S. and Iran made progress in Thursday's nuclear talks, mediator Oman said, but hours of negotiations ended without a breakthrough that could avert possible U.S. strikes amid a major military buildup. The two sides agreed to extend indirect negotiations into next week but traders grew skeptical that an agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump's administration and Iran was possible. Data showed that U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in January, suggesting inflation could pick up in the months ahead.Markets are pricing in about a 42% chance of a 25‑basis‑point U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in June, as per the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.35(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.95(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.34 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.12 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stocks ended mixed for a second straight session on Friday as investors evaluated corporate earnings and new inflation data for clues on the European Central Bank’s interest rate path.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.59 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.47 percent.
Wall Street closed lower on Friday after producer price index data came in well above expectations, intensifying concerns about persistent inflation and adding to market volatility this month.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.05 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.43 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.92% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed to near a one-month high on Friday and was on track for a seventh consecutive monthly gain, supported by geopolitical tensions following the extension of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks, while softer U.S. Treasury yields provided additional support.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $5,230.56 an ounce by 01:38 p.m. ET (1838 GMT), hitting its highest level since January 30 earlier in the session. Prices have climbed 7.6% so far in February.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1% higher at$5,247.90.
Oil prices climbed around 2% on Friday as traders remained on alert for possible supply disruptions with U.S.–Iran nuclear talks extended but still unresolved, keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated.
Brent crude futures settled at $72.48 a barrel, up $1.73, or 2.45%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $67.02 a barrel, up $1.81, or 2.78%.
