Market Roundup
• Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (May): 1.3%, 1.5% forecast, 1.5% previous.
• Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (May): 0.0%, 0.2% previous.
• Japan CPI (YoY) (May): 0.7%, 0.9% previous.
• Japan Unemployment Rate (Apr): 2.5%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous.
• Japan Jobs/Applications Ratio (Apr): 1.18, 1.18 forecast, 1.18 previous.
• Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (May): 1.4%, 1.5% previous.
• Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): 0.8%, -0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous.
• Japan Large Scale Retail Sales YoY (Apr): 2.0%, 2.0% previous.
• Japan Industrial Production Forecast 2M Ahead (MoM) (Jun): -0.4%, 2.2% previous.
• Japan Industrial Production Forecast 1M Ahead (MoM) (May): 5.1%, 2.1% previous.
• Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 2.1%, 1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous.
• Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) (Apr): 1.3%, 1.3% previous.
• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (May): 10.0, -10.6 previous.
• New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (May): 25.6%, 19.6% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 Belgium GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•10:00 Greece Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar): 4.6% previous.
•10:00 Greece PPI (YoY) (Apr): 8.3% previous.
•10:00 Greece Unemployment Rate (Apr): 9.0% previous.
•10:00 Italy HICP (MoM) (May): 0.3% forecast, 1.6% previous.
•10:00 Italy CPI (YoY) (May): 3.2% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•10:00 Italy HICP (YoY) (May): 3.2% forecast, 2.8% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the dollar on Friday as investors awaited confirmation over reports that the U.S. and Iran could extend the current ceasefire arrangement. The deal, still pending Trump's approval, would extend the truce for another 60 days and allow traffic to flow through the strategic waterway while negotiators tackle difficult issues such as Iran's nuclear program.Oil prices fell and demand for the safe-haven dollar waned, although moves were tempered as investors remained cautious about a lasting resolution following mixed signals from both Washington and Tehran earlier in the week. On the data front, U.S. inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy prices due to the Iran war and cementing economists' views that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged well into next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1648(May 25th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1693(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1577(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1561(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Friday as traders waited for details on a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.Sources told Reuters that the U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping, though U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to approve it and Iranian state media said it had not been finalised.The dollar headed for a small fall on the week, which tracks a retreat in U.S. yields. Analysts aren't sure, however, whether that can extend, since a U.S.-Iran deal is unlikely to quickly unwind the inflation impulse unleashed by soaring fuel prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3427(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3353(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3278(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dipped on Friday as traders assess US-Iran ceasefire reports. The United States and Iran reached an agreement on Thursday to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters, though U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to approve it and Iranian state media said it had not been finalised.Oil futures fell more than 1% on Friday and were on track for their steepest weekly decline since early April, easing some concerns around inflation driven by higher energy prices due to the Iran war. U.S. inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April, cementing economists' views that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates unchanged well into next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7189(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7104(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7088(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as Yen weakened slightly following the release of softer Tokyo consumer inflation figures. Annual core inflation in Tokyo remained below the BOJ’s 2% target for a fourth straight month in May, as fuel and tuition subsidies offset higher raw material costs linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Tokyo core CPI, which excludes fresh food prices, rose 1.3% year-on-year in May, slowing from 1.5% in April and missing market forecasts of a 1.5% increase, marking a sixth straight month of easing inflation. Separate data showed Japan’s factory output rebounded in April, as strong AI-related demand offset weakness in sectors affected by the Middle East conflict, indicating the economy was coping with higher fuel costs for now.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.49(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.67(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.27(April 16th low ).
Equities Recap
Asian shares firmed on Friday on as investors awaited clarity over a potential Strait of Hormuz agreement and an extension of U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 2.53% , South Korea’ KOSPI was up at 3.55%, Hang Sang was down at 0.73%
Commodities Recap
Gold was headed for a third straight monthly loss as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran kept concerns around inflation and U.S. rate hikes elevated.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,514.19 per ounce by 0610 GMT on Friday as investors assessed reports on reports of an extension to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension.
Oil futures fell more than 1% on Friday and were on track for their steepest weekly decline since early April, following reports that the U.S. and Iran had reached a potential deal to extend a ceasefire.
Brent crude futures for July fell 1.32% or $1.24 to $92.47 a barrel at 0656 GMT. U.S. oil futures fell $1.38, or 1.55%, to $87.52 a barrel.
