Market Roundup
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 54.0, 54.8 forecast, 56.1 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Mar): 45.2, 51.0 forecast, 51.8 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Mar): 70.7, 67.0 forecast, 63.0 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Mar): 60.6, 56.8 forecast, 58.6 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Mar): 53.9, 59.9 previous
• US CB Employment Trends Index (Mar): 105.72, 105.84 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.635%, 3.620% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.615%, 3.605% previous
• Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Mar): 46.60, 47.00 forecast, 52.40 previous
• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Mar): 46.3, 46.6 forecast, 52.8 previous
• Japan Household Spending YoY (Feb): -1.8%, -0.8% forecast, -1.0% previous
• Japan Household Spending MoM (Feb): 1.5%, 2.6% forecast, -2.5% previous
• Japan Foreign Reserves USD (Mar): 1,374.7B, 1,410.7B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 01:00 Australia MI Inflation Gauge MoM (Mar): -0.2% previous
• New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index MoM: 4.2% previous
• 02:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements MoM (Mar): 3.2% previous
• 04:35 Japan 30-Year JGB Auction: 3.398% previous
• 06:00 Japan Leading Index MoM (Feb): 1.7% previous
• 06:00 Japan Coincident Indicator MoM (Feb): 3.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors awaited clarity on reports of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks that came after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran of "hell" unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened.Trump warned in an expletive-laden Easter Sunday social media post that he would order strikes on Iran's power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic waterway was not reopened.The United States and Iran have received the framework of a plan to end hostilities, but Tehran rejected an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump threatened to rain "hell" on Iran if it failed to reach a deal by the end of Tuesday. Trading volumes on Monday were expected to be thin as many markets in Europe and Asia are closed for public holidays. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1560(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1629 (April 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1417(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1401(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors remained cautious amid escalating tensions in the Iran conflict. The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an essential chokepoint in global oil trade, has weighed on energy prices and has reinforced inflation fears.This week, investors will parse a slew of domestic data including inflation readings to see if the price pressures have trickled into the economy after Friday's data showed U.S. job growth rebounded more than expected in March.The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing PMI for March will be watched later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3259(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3312(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3182(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3153(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, but the move was limited as investors weighed developments in the Middle East and data showed continued contraction in Canada's services economy.The U.S. and Iran weighed a framework plan to end their five‑week conflict, as Tehran said it wanted a lasting end to the war and pushed back against pressure to swiftly reopen the Strait of Hormuz under a temporary ceasefire.Canada's services economy contracted for a fifth straight month in March as geopolitical uncertainty contributed to a decline in new business and after higher fuel costs raised operating expenses, S&P Global's Canada services PMI data showed.The headline Business Activity Index rose to 47.2 last month from 46.5 in February but remained below the 50 no-change mark. A reading below 50 shows deterioration in activity. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3953(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3865(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3796(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against yen as traders remained alert for signs of potential intervention by Tokyo following strong warnings from officials in recent days.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned on Friday that authorities stand ready to act against speculative moves in currency markets, noting that volatility has increased “significantly.”."Scepticism remains over intervention impact, as geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven dollar demand, leaving the yen down 1.5% and pinned near 160.Speculators have continued to build short yen positions, with the latest weekly data showing net shorts at $5.7 billion. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.82(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.99(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08(38.2%fib).
U.S. stocks advanced on Monday as investors looked for signs of progress toward a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and weighed President Donald Trump’s escalating threats if Iran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.35 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.45percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.54 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Monday as investors await further signals on the evolving U.S.-Iran situation ahead of a deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,654.99 per ounce by 1:31 p.m. ET (1731 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $4,684.70.
U.S. crude futures rose more than $1 on Tuesday as President Donald Trump intensified rhetoric against Iran, threatening stronger action if it fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $1.12, or 1.1%, to trade at $113.52 per barrel by 2245 GMT.
