Europe Roundup: Pound dips after soft UK retail sales data, European shares climb , Gold falls, Oil prices rise -May 22nd ,2026

Market Roundup

• Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.

•Germany GDP (YoY) (Q1): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.

•Germany GfK Consumer Climate (Jun): -29.8, -33.7 forecast, -33.1 previous.

•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 0.0%, 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous.

•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 1.1%, 1.5% forecast, 1.5% previous.

•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): -0.4%, -0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous.

•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): -1.3%, -0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous.

•UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Apr): 9.547B, 29.023B previous.

•UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Apr): 24.30B, 20.70B forecast, 11.50B previous.

•German Business Expectations (May): 83.8, 83.5 forecast, 83.5 previous.

•German Current Assessment (May): 86.1, 85.1 forecast, 85.4 previous.

•German Ifo Business Climate Index (May): 84.9, 84.2 forecast, 84.5 previous.

•Canada  Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): 1.4%, 0.9% forecast, 0.6% previous.

•Canada  RMPI (MoM) (Apr): 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 11.9% previous.

•Canada  Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous.

•Canada  RMPI (YoY) (Apr): 31.6%,  23.4% previous.

•Canada  IPPI (MoM) (Apr): 2.0%, 1.2% forecast, 2.8% previous.

•Canada  IPPI (YoY) (Apr): 11.4%,   8.4% previous.

•Canada  Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): 0.6%,  .9% previous.

•US Leading Index (MoM) (Apr): 0.1%, -0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous.

•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (May): 4.8%, 4.5% forecast, 4.7% previous.

•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (May): 44.1, 48.5 forecast, 48.1 previous.

•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May): 44.8, 48.2 forecast, 48.2 previous.•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (May): 3.9%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous.

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)  

•18:00  U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count   416 forecast,  415 previous.

•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count  551 previous.

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower on Friday as dollar  firmed after conflicting signals over a U.S.-Iran peace deal whipped up volatility across financial markets. Washington and Tehran stuck to opposing stances over the latter's uranium stockpile and control of the Strait of Hormuz, although U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been "some good signs" in talks.Analysts ​expect an agreement to include the opening of the strait   ​as the region's dependence on oil imports weighs on markets and drives inflation.Official ​data showed German consumer sentiment recovered heading into June, while a separate reading confirmed ​that the economy grew ⁠by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1635(May 21st high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1693(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1577(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1561(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: Sterling eased on Friday  as uncertainty over the status of peace talks between the U.S. and ‌Iran prompted investors to buy the dollar.This week has brought mixed economic data, including a monthly report on the labour market that ​showed unemployment is on the rise and real pay growth is barely positive, given the impact of ​inflation stemming from the Iran war. On the data front, UK retail sales data showed sales volumes fell 1.3% month-on-month in ⁠April, the steepest drop in nearly a year and more than double the 0.6% decline economists had expected. Consumers ​are cutting back on fuel purchases and discretionary spending, as they contend with soaring energy bills and uncertainty over ​the war.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3440(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3509(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3301(Lower BB).

AUD/USD:  Australian eased  against dollar on Friday   as investors remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.Market participants continue to seek clearer signals on the trajectory U.S.-Iran peace talks, with reports of diplomatic progress offset by persistent disagreements over key issues. In Australia, interest rate expectations remain firmly anchored, with futures pricing implying an 88.7% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at its June meeting. Looking ahead, domestic data will be closely watched. The April monthly CPI update due Wednesday will provide fresh insight into inflation persistence, while Q1 capital expenditure data on Thursday will help gauge business investment momentum both key inputs for assessing the RBA’s policy stance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7155(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7187(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7083(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7066(50%fib).

USD/JPY:  The U.S. dollar gained modestly on Friday as softer inflation in Japan reduced the urgency for the BOJ to tighten monetary policy. Japan’s annual core inflation slowed to a four-year low in April, driven by government subsidies on fuel and education costs, data showed on Friday. However, analysts expect escalating Middle East tensions and rising energy prices to push inflation higher in the coming months. Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 1.4% in April from a year earlier, slowing sharply from March's 1.8% increase and missing the median market forecast of a 1.7% gain. The data will be among the key factors scrutinised by the Bank of Japan at next month's policy meeting, where the board is widely expected to raise its short-term policy rate to 1% from 0.75%.Junko Koeda said on Thursday she was closely monitoring the speed and extent of the pass-through from wholesale prices to consumer inflation when assessing the pace and timing of future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.133(May 21st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at  158.23(SMA 20)  a break below could take the pair towards 157.78(50%fib ).

Equities Recap

European shares hit a more than two-week high on Friday, boosted by tech stocks and optimism over progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks despite ongoing disagreements.

At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down  at 0.42 percent, Germany's Dax was down  by 0.75 percent, France’s CAC  was down  by 0.60 percent.

Commodities Recap

Oil prices ​rose on Friday as investors doubted the prospect of a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace talks, but held ‌on track for a weekly loss.

Brent crude futures were up 92 cents, or around 1%, at $105.88 a barrel by 1226 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were 18 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $96.53 - both had risen over 3% earlier in the session.

Gold ‌on Friday headed for its second straight weekly loss, pulled lower by a firmer dollar and rising oil prices that kept inflation concerns in focus and increased bets for a U.S. interest rate hike.

Spot ​gold fell 0.5% to $4,519.69 per ounce, by 1255 GMT. It is down 0.4% ​so far in the week. U.S. gold futures for June delivery ⁠lost 0.5% to $4,520.90.