Market Roundup
• US Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar): 1.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Factory Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Mar): 1.6%, 1.6% previous
• US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%, 0.9% previous
• US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Mar): -0.3%, -0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
• US All Car Sales (Apr): 2.60M, 2.64M previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.610%, 3.590% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.610%, 3.590% previous
• Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Apr) 50.40,50.10 forecast, 46.60 previous
• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Apr) 50.7, 50.3 forecast, 46.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• . 05:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (May) 4.35% forecast, 4.10% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• . 05:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
• . 05:30 RBA Rate Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Monday as the conflict in the Middle East kept investors cautious . Markets remained cautious at the start of the trading week after Iranian news agency Fars reported that two missiles had hit a U.S. warship near Jask on the Gulf of Oman after it ignored Iranian warnings about entering the Strait of Hormuz, prompting it to turn back.U.S. Central Command denied the reports. The U.S. military said two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers had entered the Gulf to break an Iranian blockade and that two U.S. merchant ships had transited the Strait of Hormuz. The euro EUR= was down 0.2% at $1.1694. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1786(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1708(50%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1632(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Monday as investors assessed the impact of continued shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran tensions escalated.The U.S. military said two Navy destroyers entered the Gulf to counter Iran’s blockade, and two American ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iran claiming it had stopped a U.S. warship from entering.Confusion surrounding the headlines kept investors cautious, as mixed and rapidly changing reports made it difficult to assess the true risk environment. The pair is expected to remain tethered to geopolitical headlines in the near term as escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens to overshadow UK domestic fundamentals. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3602(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(May 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3511(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3427(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as increased risk of a direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz unnerved investors.The U.S. military said two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers had entered the Gulf to break an Iranian blockade and that two U.S. merchant ships had transited the strait, after Iran said it had prevented a U.S. warship from entering the Gulf.Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada said it might have to respond with consecutive interest rate hikes if oil prices stayed high and began pushing up inflation. Investors are leaning toward a BoC rate hike by July and are pricing in at least two increases in total by the end of 2026. The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3615 per U.S. dollar, after moving in a range of 1.3582 to 1.3619. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3705(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3809(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3602(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3548(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially slipped against yen but later regained ground on Monday as markets remained alert to potential action from Japanese authorities following suspected intervention last week aimed at supporting the weakened yen.The yen climbed as much as 0.75% to 155.69 before paring gains, with much of the appreciation coming during a nine-minute stretch around midday Singapore time.Tokyo officials declined to confirm whether intervention took place last week, but sources told Reuters that authorities likely stepped in to buy yen, marking the first such action in two years.Traders continue to assess the likelihood of further intervention, with Tokyo often taking advantage of thin holiday trading conditions to step into the market and influence currency movements.Markets have also weighed the possibility of US coordination with Japan to bolster the currency . Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.30(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.70(Daily high) a break below could take the pair towards 155.40(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares ticked lower on Monday as European automakers came under pressure following threats of a U.S. tariff hike, while investors awaited signs of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.24 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.71 percent.
Wall Street closed lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 pulling back from record highs as rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment..
Dow Jones closed down by 1.13 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.41 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Monday as heightened U.S.-Iran tensions boosted the dollar and reinforced inflation concerns that kept expectations of higher interest rates alive.
Spot gold was down 1.9% at $4,526.88 per ounce, by 11:26 a.m. ET (1526 GMT). U.S. gold futures fell 2.3% to $4,537.90.
Oil prices jumped 6% on Monday and stocks fell as Iran escalated its military campaign, hitting several ships in the Strait of Hormuz and setting a UAE oil port ablaze.
Brent futures rose $6.27, or 5.8%, to settle at $114.44 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $4.48, or 4.4%, to settle at $106.42.
