Market Roundup
• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar): 62K, 41K forecast, 66K previous
• US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, -0.1% previous
• US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Retail Control (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.2% previous
• US Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 3.71%, 3.19% previous
• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 50.0, 51.0 previous
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 52.3, 52.4 forecast, 51.6 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 52.7, 52.3 forecast, 52.4 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Mar): 48.7, 49.0 forecast, 48.8 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Mar): 78.3, 74.0 forecast, 70.5 previous
• US Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan): -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan): 0.3%, 0.4% previous
• US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Mar): 53.5, 54.5 forecast, 55.8 previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories: 5.451M, 1.800M forecast, 6.926M previous
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Trade Balance (Feb): 2.810B forecast, 2.631B previous
•00:30 Australia Exports (MoM) (Feb): -0.9% previous
•00:30 Australia Imports (MoM) (Feb): 0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Wednesday as hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran conflict boosted risk sentiment. Both Donald Trump and Iranian officials issued statements aimed at easing tensions, though neither side fully accepted the other’s ceasefire conditions. The White House announced that Trump would address the nation at 9 p.m. EDT (0100 GMT Thursday) to provide an update on Iran, after earlier saying the U.S. could end its military campaign within two to three weeks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio added that Washington could see the “finish line” in the conflict.On the economic front, Eurozone manufacturing expanded in March, with the S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.6 from 50.8 in February, its highest level since mid-2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1620(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1704 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1553(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1436(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD:The British pound firmed against the dollar on rising expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict boosted risk appetite .Global investor appetite was buoyed by comments from President Donald Trump that the U.S. could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington will have to reexamine its relations with NATO after the war ends.Trump will provide an update on Iran in an address to the nation at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday), White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on X. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 in March 2026 from 51.7 in February, revised down from the preliminary 51.4, yet still well above the market forecast of 50.1. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3236(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3228(38.2%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3156(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, supported by rising hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, despite domestic data showing stagnation in Canada’s manufacturing sector. President Donald Trump told Reuters the U.S. will end its war in Iran “fairly soon” but could return for targeted “spot hits” if needed. The safe-haven U.S. dollar fell for a second day, while oil prices, a key Canadian export, dropped 2.2% to $99.11 a barrel. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 in March from 51.0 in February, its lowest in three months, as U.S. tariffs and war-related uncertainty weighed on output and pushed input costs higher.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3956(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3856(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3782(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against yen on Wednesday as market optimism grew over a potential de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.Investors were encouraged after Donald Trump signaled that U.S. military operations in Iran could conclude “very soon,” pointing to a potential timeline of two to three weeks.The yen rebounded from this year’s low of 160.46 per dollar, moving back above the key 160 level that had raised concerns of intervention by Japanese authorities.On the data front, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers improved in the three months to March, though firms expect conditions to worsen in the next three months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.02(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.27(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.51 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks rallied, with the STOXX 600 posting its biggest three-day gain in nearly a year after Trump said the U.S. would be out of Iran pretty quickly.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.85 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 2.73 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 2.10 percent.
Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday, boosted by strong gains in Alphabet and other major tech stocks, after President Donald Trump signaled that the Middle East conflict could be nearing an end.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.48 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.72 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.16 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar slipped and other risk assets rallied on tentative hopes that the conflict in the Middle East will de-escalate.
Spot gold was up 2.5% at $4,784.22 per ounce by 1730 GMT, highest since March19. U.S. gold futures settled 2.9% higher at $4,813.10.
Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said that the U.S. would end its war on Iran fairly soon.
The front-month Brent contract for June fell $2.81, or 2.7%, to settle at $101.16 per barrel, bouncing off a session low of $98.35. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May slipped $1.26, or around 1.2%, to $100.12 per barrel, off a session low of $96.50.
