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Antofagasta shares fell about 5% in early London trading on Thursday after the Chilean mining group lowered its 2026 copper production forecast following weather-related disruptions at its Los Pelambres mine. The revised outlook overshadowed a strong first-half performance supported by elevated copper prices.
The copper producer reported EBITDA of $2.84 billion for the first six months of 2026, up 27% from $2.23 billion a year earlier. Its EBITDA margin improved by five percentage points to 63.4%, while revenue increased 18% year over year to $4.48 billion. Profit before tax jumped 72% to $1.99 billion.
Antofagasta also raised its shareholder payout, declaring a dividend of 30.1 cents per share, compared with 16.6 cents during the same period last year.
The miner's balance sheet remained relatively strong, although its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio increased to 0.68 times as of June 30 from 0.53 times at the end of 2025.
Investor attention, however, focused on Antofagasta's reduced copper production guidance. The company now expects 2026 output of between 625,000 and 655,000 metric tons, down from its previous target of 650,000 to 700,000 tons.
The downgrade follows a precautionary shutdown at the Los Pelambres copper mine in July after extreme rainfall hit Chile's Coquimbo region, prompting authorities to declare a state of catastrophe. CEO Iván Arriagada said operations have resumed in a safe and orderly manner and that the impact on overall production has been contained.
Antofagasta produced 285,000 tons of copper during the first half, representing a 9% decline from the previous year. Lower production at Los Pelambres and Centinela was primarily responsible for the decrease.
Despite the weaker full-year copper output forecast, Antofagasta expects quarterly production to rise sequentially through the remainder of 2026. Strong copper prices and improving production will therefore remain key factors for Antofagasta shares and the company's earnings outlook.
