Apple’s record September-quarter revenue in India came alongside estimates of a steep drop in shipments, showing how strength in premium models can coexist with a weaker overall smartphone market.
On Apple’s Nov. 2 earnings call, CEO John Ternus said India had an all-time revenue record and a September-quarter record for iPhone upgraders. Apple reported global fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% from a year earlier, for the period ended Sept. 26. The company did not give an India revenue total or local iPhone sales figures.
Omdia’s estimates put Apple’s India shipments at 3.9 million phones in July through September, down from 4.9 million in the same quarter of 2025. Based on those rounded counts, the year-over-year decline was close to 20%. The figures track phones entering distribution channels, so they do not establish how many consumers bought them. The comparison is also against a strong quarter: Omdia recorded 4.9 million Apple shipments in 2025 as India’s overall smartphone market grew 3%.
Other measures point to resilience in the premium segment. Counterpoint Research said first-wave sales of Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro models were almost 20% higher than the prior Pro generation’s initial sales. That measure differs from Omdia’s estimate of total quarterly shipments. Moneycontrol reported that Tarun Pathak, Counterpoint Research’s research director, put Apple’s average selling price in India above $1,000 for the quarter. Counterpoint’s public release does not report an India-specific figure for that price.
Estimates of the broader market also diverged. Omdia put total third-quarter smartphone shipments at 35.8 million, down 26%, and linked the fall to higher prices, cautious spending and Diwali’s later timing, which pushed some festive inventory build-up into October. Counterpoint estimated a 20% decline in overall shipments and said volumes for phones priced below ₹20,000 fell 47%. Neither firm’s release explains the difference between their overall-market estimates.
The sharper contraction in the lower-priced segment points to greater pressure at that end of the market. Omdia expects India’s smartphone market to shrink again by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027, with pricing pressure likely to persist through at least the first half of the year.
