India’s smartphone shipments fell sharply in the third quarter of 2026 as higher prices weighed on demand for new phones. Omdia estimated a 26% year-over-year drop to 35.8 million units, the lowest third-quarter total since 2016. Counterpoint Research put the decline at 20%.
Smart Analytics Global (SAG) calculated a 23% fall to 35.9 million units and forecast a steeper 26% decline for the fourth quarter, Hindustan Times reported, saying it had reviewed SAG’s Smartphone 360 report.
The firms agree on the direction of the market even as their estimates differ. Omdia cited higher phone prices, cautious consumer spending and weaker replacement demand. It also said the later timing of Diwali shifted some festive inventory purchases from September into October. Counterpoint found that shipments of phones priced below ₹20,000 fell 47% year over year, as rising model prices pushed devices into higher price bands.
Samsung regained the top shipment rank in India, according to both firms. Omdia counted 6.7 million Samsung phones shipped during the quarter and said Chinese makers’ combined market share fell to about 68% from 75% a year earlier.
The outlook remains weak, though forecasts vary. Counterpoint expects Indian shipments to fall around 13% for full-year 2026. Omdia predicts another decline in the low single digits in 2027, while Hindustan Times reported SAG’s forecast of an 11% fall that year.
