Market Roundup
• Japan Bank Lending (YoY) (Mar): 4.8%, 4.4% forecast, 4.5% previous
• Japan PPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.6%, 2.4% forecast, 2.1% previous
• Japan PPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.8%, 0.9% forecast, 0.1% previous
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Feb) 29.7%, 29.7% forecast, -7.2% previous
• Australia Private House Approvals (Feb) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
• Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Feb) 14.0%, 14.0% forecast, -15.7% previous
• China CPI (MoM) (Mar) -0.7%, -0.2% forecast, 1.0% previous
• China CPI (YoY) (Mar) 1.0%, 1.2% forecast, 1.3% previous
• China PPI (YoY) (Mar) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, -0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 Italy Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) 0.5% forecast, -0.6% previous
• 09:00 Italy Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) 0.5%forecast -0.6% previous
• 09:00 Italy 3-Year BTP Auction 2.75% previous
• 09:00 Italy 7-Year BTP Auction 3.34% previous
• 09:00 Italy 15-Year BTP Auction 3.87% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday as the dollar firmed slightly on concerns over restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz, despite a U.S.–Iran ceasefire. Iran has limited ship movements through the strait, citing ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, while President Trump urged Israel to scale back its operations to preserve the truce. Israel has agreed to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon, tentatively set for next week, and the U.S. and Iran are also expected to hold talks over the weekend. Higher oil prices continue to support the dollar, as the U.S. remains a net oil exporter.Investors now await March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later in the day for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1717(April 8th high)), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1546(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound eased slightly against the dollar on Friday as markets remained cautious ahead of upcoming U.S.–Iran peace discussions.The fragile ceasefire remains in place for now, but sentiment is still highly sensitive. Traders continue to monitor developments closely, with concerns that any deterioration in the situation could quickly reverse recent risk-on flows. Meanwhile, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively stalled, keeping a degree of underlying risk premium in energy markets and supporting volatility across FX.In the U.S., attention is shifting toward Friday’s core CPI release for March, where Reuters consensus expectations stand at +0.3% month-on-month and +2.7% year-on-year. The data will be key in shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path, particularly after recent signs of softer growth momentum.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3510(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3531(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3373(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3220(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Friday as investors hoped the worst of Middle East tensions had been avoided, though weekend peace talks continue to pose event risk. Iranian officials arrived in Islamabad on Thursday, while a U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is set to arrive Friday for discussions aimed at peace.U.S. inflation data is due later in the day, but market direction is likely to depend more on the outcome of weekend U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad. Traders will also watch remarks from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, due to speak in New York on Monday evening.Any guidance on inflation, policy outlook, or economic conditions could shape the next move in the AUD. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7094 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7167(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7061(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6982(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Friday as Japanese yen weakened on Middle East-driven risk concerns, while a modest USD uptick provided additional support to the currency pair.Unresolved geopolitical tensions continue to support the U.S. dollar, although traders remain cautious heading into the weekend.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned on Friday that authorities stand ready to act against speculative moves in currency markets, noting that volatility has increased “significantly.” On the data front ,Japanese wholesale inflation jumped in March and the central bank's deputy governor called for vigilance to the risk of stagflation, highlighting mounting price pressure that may prod the central bank to raise interest rates as soon as this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.28(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.48(April 9th low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.06(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian equities rose on Friday as investors returned to risk assets after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal, although questions over its durability remained an overhang on stocks.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.90% , Hang Seng was up at 0.52%, China A50 was up at 1.59 %
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Friday as a firmer U.S. dollar and uncertainty over the U.S.–Iran ceasefire weighed on sentiment, but the metal remained on track for a third straight weekly gain as expectations of deeper Fed rate cuts supported demand for non-yielding bullion.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,759.54 per ounce by 0316 GMT. The metal, however, has gained 1.8% so far this week.U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7% to $4,782.70.
Oil prices rose on Friday, supported by renewed supply concerns from Saudi Arabia and continued disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures added 96 cents, or 1%, to $96.88 a barrel as of 0604 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 78 cents, 0.80%, at $98.65 a barrel.
