Market Roundup
• New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q1)-4%, 48% previous
• New Zealand NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q1) 91.2%, 89.8% previous
• New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q1) 0.9%, 0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous
• New Zealand CPI (YoY) (Q1) 3.1%, 2.9% forecast, 3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)-10.3 forecast,-8.5 previous
•10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Apr)-70.0 forecast,-62.9 previous
•10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)-6.7 forecast,-0.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•07:30 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•08:00 EU ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Tuesday as uncertainty over Middle East peace talks kept investors on the cautious.The United States expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran would go ahead in Pakistan, but significant hurdles remain as the end of a two-week ceasefire approaches.U.S. President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran on April 7. While he has not specified the exact time it expires, April 21 would mark two weeks, which could be Tuesday evening in the United States and Wednesday morning in Iran. Iran's armed forces are ready to deliver an "immediate and decisive response" to any renewed hostile action by its adversaries. Investors will also keep a close eye on the Senate confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, as key issues such as monetary policy direction, the Fed's independence and its balance sheet are set to take centre stage. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1728(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against dollar on Tuesday as cautious investors tracked developments around potential U.S.-Iran peace talks. Markets are focused on whether discussions will proceed in Islamabad and if a ceasefire extension follows.The U.S. signaled confidence that talks could move forward in Pakistan, while an Iranian official indicated Tehran is considering participation, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated.On the domestic front, UK labour data pointed to softer hiring momentum. Job postings fell to their lowest level in nearly five years in March, reflecting employer caution following the onset of the Iran conflict.However, there were signs of underlying stability before tensions escalated. Wage growth—closely monitored by the Bank of England—cooled less than expected in the three months to February. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, partly due to a rise in students opting out of the labour force.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3532(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3499(April 14th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar softened on Tuesday as traders remained cautious, weighing unconfirmed reports of potential Middle East peace talks.Attention is turning to the approaching ceasefire deadline, with U.S. Vice President Vance heading to Pakistan in a move seen as part of ongoing diplomatic efforts..President Donald Trump said negotiations are happening "relatively quickly" and will yield better terms than previous agreements.Now in its eighth week, the war has triggered an unprecedented energy shock, with oil prices surging as the Strait of Hormuz handling about 20% of global oil remains effectively closed.On the macro side, traders are focused on U.S. March retail sales due Tuesday and April S&P flash PMIs on Thursday for further direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7170(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7229(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7125(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7034(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Tuesday as yen remained under pressure on growing uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. The Bank of Japan is likely to hold off raising interest rates next week, five sources familiar with its thinking said, as fading prospects of a near-term end to the Middle East war keep the country's economic and price outlook uncertain. Japan will take necessary steps while closely monitoring oil prices and the global economy, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said, amid concerns over Middle East tensions impacting energy markets. Meanwhile, markets remain focused on US-Iran peace negotiations, with both sides expected to send delegations to Islamabad for a second round of talks before the current ceasefire expires. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares gain on Tuesday as investors balanced optimism over potential U.S.-Iran peace talks with ongoing geopolitical risks and elevated oil prices, while tech stocks supported key regional indices..
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.88% , Hang Seng was up at 0.48%, China A50 was up at 0.16 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, as wary investors watched developments around the possible U.S.-Iran peace talks, while a firmer dollar added to the pressure.
Spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,785.99 per ounce, as of 0745 GMT, extending its fall from Monday when it hit its lowest level since April 13.
U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.5% to $4,805.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, reversing gains in the previous session, on expectations peace talks between the U.S. and Iran will take place this week and allow more supply to flow from the key Middle East producing region.
Brent futures declined 95 cents, or 1%, at $94.53, as of 0003 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futuresfor May fell $1.54, or 1.72%, to $88.07.
