Market Roundup
• China FDI (Apr)-10.30%,-7.30% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
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Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
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Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Monday as growing optimism over a possible U.S.-Iran agreement supported broader market sentiment and reduced demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Over the weekend, there were conflicting signs on a peace deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media on Saturday that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran had been "largely negotiated," with both countries and mediators in Pakistan reporting progress.However, on Sunday Trump said on Truth Social the U.S. blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would "remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed". There was no immediate response from Iran's government. Trading volumes may remain lighter than usual due to public holidays in both the United Kingdom and the United States on Monday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1648(May 25th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1693(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1577(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1561(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling gained ground on Monday as improving optimism surrounding a possible U.S.-Iran agreement boosted investor risk appetite and supported higher-risk currencies, including sterling. Market sentiment improved after reports suggested that a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran had been “largely negotiated,” raising hopes that tensions in the Middle East could ease in the coming weeks. The improved geopolitical outlook triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, with WTI crude falling nearly 4.9%, while equity markets rallied strongly. Despite the optimistic reaction, traders remain cautious as U.S. President Donald Trump later stated that Washington is in no hurry to finalize a deal, while Iranian officials accused the United States of continuing to block access to certain Iranian assets. These conflicting signals could keep volatility elevated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3505(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3488(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3382(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: Australian strengthened against dollar on Monday as market sentiment improved on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could soon re-open, easing concerns about disruptions to global oil shipments and trade flows. Hopes for progress in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz helped the Aussie recover from a setback last week when a soft set of jobs data was taken as lessening the chance of a near-term hike in interest rates. Markets now imply just a 12% probability of a quarter-point rise in the 4.35% cash rate at the Reserve Bank of Australia's next meeting on June 16.Looking ahead, key Australian economic data later this week, including the April monthly CPI report on Wednesday and first-quarter capital expenditure figures on Thursday, both of which could influence expectations for future RBA policy moves and near-term direction in the Australian dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7170(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7189(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7104(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7088(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen on Monday as yen firmed on improving optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement. Trading conditions are expected to remain relatively thin due to the U.S. Memorial Day holiday and market holidays across parts of Europe, which could lead to reduced liquidity and potentially sharper price swings during the session. Yield differentials continue to play a major role in supporting the pair. The spread between Japanese government bond yields and U.S. Treasury two-year yields remains relatively wide, favoring the dollar, although the gap in longer-dated 10-year yields has narrowed somewhat. Markets are currently pricing in at least one additional interest rate hike this year from the Federal Reserve, with some investors even considering the possibility of further tightening rather than rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is also expected to continue gradually normalizing policy, with markets anticipating a potential 25 basis point rate hike at its June meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.30(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.23(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 157.78(50%fib ).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks surged on Monday as the prospect of a deal to end the Iran war buoyed risk appetite, although a lack of clarity over when the Strait of Hormuz would open kept enthusiasm in check..
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 3.04% , Hang Seng was up at 0.86%, China A50 was up at 1.31%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell 6% to two-week lows on Monday as hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal eased supply concerns, despite ongoing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures fell $5.85, or 5.7%, to $97.69 a barrel by 0343 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate were at $90.85 a barrel, down $5.75, or 6%. Both contracts touched their lowest since May 7 earlier in the session.
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday as optimism over U.S.-Iran peace talks weakened the dollar and lowered oil prices, easing inflation concerns.
Spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,557.46 per ounce, as of 0542 GMT. U.S. gold futures for June delivery gained 0.8% to $4,558.80.
