Market Roundup
•New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Jan) 1.0% -0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 German Current Assessment (Feb) 86.1 forecast,85.7 previous
•09:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb)88.4 forecast,87.6 previous
•09:00 German Business Expectations (Feb) 90.5 forecast, 89.5 previous
•09:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Jan) 1.0% forecast, 1.2% previous
•09:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% forecast,0.2% previous
•09:00 Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jan )1.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Monday as traders took the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down most of President Donald Trump's tariffs as supportive for global growth, though confusion and risk of conflict in the Middle East kept moves relatively small.The Supreme Court found on Friday Trump's sweeping tariffs exceeded his authority. Trump has responded by lashing out at the court and imposing a blanket 15% levy on imports, as well as insisting higher-tariff deals with trade partners should stay.Besides tariffs, markets have an eye on a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East as it pressures Iran to drop pursuit of nuclear weapons, and are looking ahead to Trump's State of the Union address Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Monday as the dollar weakened as investors seeking clarity on U.S. trade policy. Uncertainty intensified after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. He initially announced a new 10% global tariff, only to unexpectedly raise it to 15%, reportedly surprising some of his own officials.Meanwhile, the European Commission urged Washington to honor last year’s agreement with the European Union, which includes zero tariffs on selected goods such as aircraft and spare parts.U.S. trading partners and investors remained cautious as they assessed the latest policy shifts. Markets have already been unsettled by previous trade levies, which have so far failed to narrow the U.S. trade deficit. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Monday as investors grappled with renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Confusion intensified after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down much of Trump’s tariffs on Friday, prompting him to announce a new 10% global rate, which was then raised to 15% over the weekend. Uncertainty remained high, as it was still unclear when the proposed tariffs would take effect, which goods or sectors might be exempt, and whether the full 15% rate would be applied uniformly across all countries. Meanwhile, all eyes are on Australia’s January’s consumer price data due Wednesday, after strong jobs figures last week boosted expectations of a May rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 70%.Forecasts point to a 0.3% monthly rise in trimmed mean inflation, keeping the annual rate at 3.3%, still above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined on Monday as the dollar dipped after fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump undermined confidence in the greenback .Confusion deepened after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. He initially proposed a new 10% global tariff, only to unexpectedly raise it to 15%.In Friday’s decision, the Supreme Court of the United States struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs imposed under a national emergency law, rejecting one of his most controversial uses of executive authority in a ruling with significant global economic implications. The move raised fears that U.S. trade agreements could unravel, though senior officials said existing deals would stay intact. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.19(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.82 (Feb 18th low).
Equities Recap
Asian share markets traded cautiously and the dollar weakened on Monday as investors awaited clearer guidance on U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, confidence in the broader AI trade faces a key test this week with earnings results from Nvidia.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.26% , Hang Seng was up at 2.40%, China A50 was down at 1.27%
Commodities Recap
Gold rose to a three-week high on Monday after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down a broad range of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, weakening the dollar and driving investors toward safe-haven bullion.
Spot gold climbed 0.6% to $5,136.22 per ounce by 0729 GMT, having earlier hit its highest since January 30. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 1.5% at $5,157.50.
Oil prices slipped around 1% on Monday as the U.S. and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, easing concerns of escalating tensions. Meanwhile, fresh tariff hikes announced by President Donald Trump added uncertainty over global growth and fuel demand.
Brent crude futures slid 87 cents, or 1.21%, to $70.89 a barrel by 0722 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $65.63 a barrel, down 85 cents, or 1.28%.
