Market Roundup
• Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Mar): -11.6%, -10.8% forecast, -10.6% previous
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks (Mar): -4,448.1B, -2,511.0B previous
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying (Mar): -945.4B, -635.1B previous
• Australia Trade Balance (Feb): 5.686B, 2.810B forecast, 2.258B previous
• Australia Exports (MoM) (Feb): 4.9%, -1.6% previous
• Australia Imports (MoM) (Feb): -3.2%, 1.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•France 10-Year OAT Auction: 3.46% previous
•10:00 Italy Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): 0.3%forecast, 0.6% previous
•10:00 Italy Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump's address on Iran shattered hopes for a possible ceasefire in the Middle East conflict that has rattled investors and roiled markets.In Trump's national address, the president said conflict in Iran would soon be ending, but the U.S. military would continue to hit targets there over the next two to three weeks. The greenback has benefited from a rush to safe-haven assets since the conflict began in late February. Expectations that a ceasefire could be near have reversed some of the markets' most popular trades earlier this week and put the greenback on a two-day decline.The euro stood at $1.1554 down roughly 0.3% versus the dollar after the speech to give up some recent gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1560(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1629 (April 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1417(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1401(Lower BB).
GBP/USD:The British pound slipped lower against the dollar on Thursday as hopes for a swift end to the Middle East war faded after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran. Trump said military operations would be intensified in the next two to three weeks, offering no concrete timeline for ending a conflict that sparked global energy supply chaos and has threatened to send the world economy into a tailspin.Trump also suggested the war could escalate if Iranian leaders did not give in to U.S. terms during negotiations, with strikes on Iran's energy and oil infrastructure possible.Shortly after Trump's speech, the Israeli military said it had identified missiles launched from Iran toward Israeli territory.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3236(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3228(38.2%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3156(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday as mixed signals regarding the Iran conflict left traders cautious. Initial optimism about potential de-escalation was tempered by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, keeping the market skeptical.On the data front, Australia’s goods trade surplus jumped to AUD 5.69 billion in February 2026, up from a revised AUD 2.58 billion in January, surpassing market expectations of a AUD 2.6 billion surplus.Exports climbed 4.9% month-on-month to a four-month high of AUD 45.65 billion, rebounding from a revised 1.6% decline in January. Meanwhile, imports fell 3.2% to a seven-month low of AUD 39.96 billion, reversing a revised 1.0% rise in the previous month.The AUD’s recent upswing appears to be losing momentum, with the pair likely to drift toward 0.6900 if risk sentiment remains cautious. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6921(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6996(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6871(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6799(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against yen on Thursday as dollar firmed after U.S. President Donald Trump dashed hopes for clarity on when the Middle East conflict might end.Trump said in a prime-time address that the U.S. would hit Iran "extremely hard" within weeks, claiming military goals were nearly achieved and the conflict was close to ending.Trump said the United States does not need the key oil gateway and that it will open naturally once the conflict is over.Attention will now turn to Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The market is looking for a 60,000 rise in jobs for March, according to economists .The Japanese yen traded weaker at 159.25 , but it was still away from the psychologically important 160 level that is viewed as the line in the sand for intervention by Japanese authorities.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.44(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.99(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell on Thursday, reversing an earlier strong start to April after U.S. President Donald Trump flagged an escalation in the Iran war over the next two‑to‑three week.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 2.56% , Hang Seng was down at 1.52 %, China A50 was down at 1.16%
Commodities Recap
Gold pulled back from two‑week highs on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would continue its military campaign in Iran in the coming weeks.
Spot gold was down 2% at $4,664.39 per ounce, as of 0439 GMT, snapping a four-day winning streak, while U.S. gold futures slid 2.5% to $4,691.10.
Oil prices surged more than $5 on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would continue its attacks on Iran without setting a clear timeline to end the war, raising fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures rose $6.33, or 6.3%, to $107.49 per barrel by 0407 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $5.28, or 5.3%, to $105.40 per barrel.
