Asia Roundup: Yen bounces from three-week low on intervention rhetoric, Asian shares weather bond rout ,Oil slides -September 25th, 2026

Market Roundup

•  GfK German Consumer Climate  (Oct) -30.6, -27.1 forecast, -26.8 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT) 

•08:00  EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Aug) 4.4% previous

•08:00   EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Aug) 3.5% forecast, 3.4% forecast

•08:00   EU M3 Money Supply (Aug) 17,614.0B previous

•08:00   EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Aug) 3.2% forecast, 3.1% previous

•08:00   Italian 6-Month BOT Auction 2.472% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT) 

•09:15 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

•09:15 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro hovered near two month low  on Friday  as a sharp rise in long-dated U.S. Treasury yields to multi-decade highs has boosted the dollar and weighed on the euro. The pair continues to drift lower as widening yield differentials favour the U.S. currency.Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, including Paulson and Williams, have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. The broad U.S. dollar index is up around 1.0% this week, while rate futures imply a 70.9% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the October 28 meeting, further supporting the dollar.Higher oil prices are adding to pressure on the euro. Brent crude has risen 3.6% to around $106.77 a barrel as continued Houthi attacks on Saudi targets raise concerns over energy supplies and inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1539(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1348(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1308(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: Sterling  languished near a three-month low   and was on track for its worst weekly performance in four months. The pound has come under pressure after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials strengthened expectations of another rate hike in October. Markets are now pricing a significantly higher probability of further Fed tightening, supporting U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar while reducing demand for GBP/USD. Markets have aggressively repriced the interest rate trajectory after the Fed tightened policy last week, while robust economic data, fresh energy supply concerns and a chorus of hawkish Fed speakers have further strengthened that conviction. A bond selloff, which sent long-dated US Treasury yields to their highest in more than 20 years, also gave the greenback a leg up. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3347(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3397(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3227(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3178(23.6%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hovered around  0.7000 level  on Friday   as Australian dollar remained  pressured by surging US yields buoyed the greenback .  Global yields continued to march higher, with the 30-year US Treasury yield rising to its highest level since 2004 after more Federal Reserve officials said additional interest rate hikes may be needed to curb high inflation. The US 2-year yields US2YT=RR were steady at 4.9035%, having jumped 16 bps this week to hover near a two-year high. Attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision on Tuesday, September 29.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7134(Sep 18th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7164(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7080 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07072(Lower BB)

USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar  dipped on Friday as yen strengthened as Japan stepped up intervention warnings. The sudden move came after Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said US President Donald Trump raised concern about yen weakness during a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this week.Katayama said this reaffirmed the shared US-Japan stance behind July's joint intervention,adding she and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would stay in close contact as policymakers stepped upwarnings over renewed yen weakness.Still, the yen is now on track for a second week of decline, as markets earlier judged the Bank of Japan's rate hike to a 31-year high and its latest guidance as insufficiently hawkish. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.83(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  157.71(Sep24th low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.60(SMA 20).

Equities Recap

Asian shares held their nerve on Friday as a relentless bond selloff pushed longer dated US yields to two-decade highs, raising borrowing costs worldwide and threatening lofty equity valuations.

China A50 was down by 1.58% ,   South Korea’s KOSPI was up at  0.90%, Nikkei was up  at 1.45%

Commodities Recap

Oil prices fell on Friday as investors weighed the possibility of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran against growing concerns that escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia could disrupt crude supplies from the key Middle Eastern producer.

Brent was down $1.47, or 1.4%, at $105.11 a barrel at 0541 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down $2, ​or 2.1%, at $92.61 a barrel.

Gold prices eased on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations for a prolonged period of elevated Federal Reserve interest rates weighed on demand for the non-yielding metal..

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,270.83 per ounce by 0425 ​GMT, but was down over 2% so far this week. US gold ​futures edged 0.2% higher to $4,305.10.