Australia employment growth likely to record 4.5 years high

Australian employment change was -5.1k in September, and is forecasted to record at 14.8k in october by consensus, which would stand at a 4.5 year high, if realised.

Australian employment growth is above the recent downgraded rate of population growth of working age, consistent with decreasing employment, when the participation dont rise too fastly.

The country's employment growth, is edging up since January 2014, and this trend is likely to have improved in October, measured by year on year rate.

"Broadly speaking, employment conditions are likely to have remained solid at the start of Q4, given the continuing rebalancing of growth away from resource investment towards the more labour-intensive sectors of residential construction and services exports" says Societe Generale in a research note. 

With the employment indications improving, the business sentiment has been strong. Also, the Q3 saw gains in the beginning , albeit employment growth is strong in the complete quarter. In September, a small decline wasreported in the survey.

"In other words, October's labour market report should benefit from a statistical rebound. Although we expect the participation rate to recover part of September's 0.15pp decline, a 20k employment gain should be sufficient to allow a marginal decline in unemployment, given that at current rates of participation the demographic increase in the labour force is around 15k per month", estimates Societe Generale.