Australia’s September inflation release will test whether price pressures have worsened ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November meeting, where officials must weigh inflation against economic activity.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is scheduled to release September consumer price index (CPI) data at 8:30 p.m. ET Tuesday (00:30 UTC Wednesday), or 11:30 a.m. AEDT on Oct. 28. The latest official figures, for the 12 months through August, showed headline inflation at 4.0% and trimmed-mean inflation at 3.6%.
FXStreet reported that Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Elias Haddad expects annual headline inflation to reach 4.2% in September, while trimmed-mean inflation stays at 3.6%. The outlet also reported Haddad’s view that stronger inflation could support another 25-basis-point increase, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, and bolster the Australian dollar’s yield appeal.
Westpac forecasts headline inflation of 4.1% and trimmed-mean inflation of 3.6%. The Reserve Bank’s August projections put those measures at 3.6% and 3.3%, respectively, for the year ended December 2026, a different period from the September figures now due.
The outlook has shifted since that forecast. In an Oct. 21 speech, Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation prospects had become “materially worse” than the bank expected in August. He pointed to oil prices about one-third above the level assumed then, higher AI and technology costs, and domestic capacity constraints. Our earlier coverage of Hauser’s inflation warning also discussed its effect on the Australian dollar.
The Reserve Bank raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60% in September. Hauser said rate increases add pressure on households with home loans, while low-income renters can be especially exposed to price rises. Commonwealth Bank senior economist Trent Saunders said the bank’s baseline was for rates to remain unchanged in November, with the decision depending on the CPI result and its composition.
The Reserve Bank’s meeting is set for Nov. 2–3, with the rate decision due at 10:30 p.m. ET Nov. 2 (03:30 UTC Nov. 3).
