The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar Friday as traders priced a roughly even chance of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase at its Nov. 3 meeting.
FXStreet reported AUD/USD at 0.7035, up 0.20%, at 12:06 p.m. ET (16:06 UTC) Friday, Oct. 23.
Two pricing gauges put the chance of an increase slightly above even odds: RBADay cited a 56% estimate from ASX futures on Oct. 23, while Rate Probability’s overnight indexed swap (OIS) tracker showed 56.4%. Neither figure is guidance from the RBA.
The RBA’s cash rate target stands at 4.60% after the Board raised it on Sept. 29. The Board pointed to persistent inflation pressure and risks tilting upward, while leaving open another increase if needed.
On Oct. 21, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation picture had deteriorated from the Bank’s August assessment. He cited higher oil prices, AI- and technology-related prices, and domestic capacity pressures. Hauser also linked higher rates to strain on mortgage holders and referred to hardship rates and calls to the National Debt Helpline. EconoTimes previously covered Hauser’s warning about inflation risks.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 27-28 meeting, S&P Global’s October flash survey showed services at 57.9, down from 58.8 in September, and the composite at 57.6, down from 58.4. Manufacturing moved to 56.0 from 55.9. The Fed’s target range stood at 3.75%-4.00% after a 25-basis-point increase on Sept. 16.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics scheduled its September consumer price index (CPI) release for 8:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, Oct. 27 (00:30 UTC Oct. 28). The RBA calendar lists the next rate decision for 10:30 p.m. ET Nov. 2 (03:30 UTC Nov. 3).
