Australia's employment growth to slow down by end of 2015

Australia's total employment fell 5.1k in September, below market expectations for a 9.6k rise. Estimates ranged from 0k to +20k which is reasonable given the volatility in the monthly employment series. Total employment has grown 230.1k (or 2.0%yr) in the year to September, in line with the print for the year to August. 

The mix was soft with a 13.9k fall in full-time employment (128.9k or 1.6%yr) and an 8.9k rise in part-time employment (101.2k or 2.9%yr).

Westpac highlights the following two key issues: 

• Firstly, a pullback in the participation rate is seen, from the July high of 65.1% to 64.9%, it is still well up on the 2014 low of 64.5%. This suggests that recent changes to government policy with regards to job searching for those on unemployment benefits may indeed be having a lasting impact of job seeker numbers. 
  
  
• Secondly, following the volatility in the original data in August/September 2014 it appears that something more like the historical seasonality returned in 2015.