The Bank of Japan’s latest meeting record shows policymakers weighing inflation progress against demand risks as they debate how quickly to raise rates ahead of the central bank’s next policy meeting.
The BOJ’s summary of its Oct. 29–30 meeting records differing views on the timing and pace of further increases. It brings together written opinions from Policy Board members and government representatives, edited by the governor. The document does not identify individual speakers or count how many supported each position.
The BOJ set its overnight call-rate guideline around 1.25% in an 8-1 vote. Policy Board member TAKATA Hajime dissented and proposed a guideline around 1.5%; the proposal was rejected. EconoTimes previously covered the rate hold.
Views on prices and the appropriate policy setting varied. One opinion assessed underlying inflation as broadly consistent with the BOJ’s 2% target and favored further increases. Another opinion projected that the consumer price index (CPI), excluding fresh food, would rise more than 3% from a year earlier near fiscal year-end; the summary does not specify which fiscal year. The opinions also differed on the neutral rate: one placed the current policy rate within its estimated range, while another put the neutral rate considerably above 1%.
Demand was another concern. One opinion cited the Consumption Activity Index’s average in July and August, which was lower than in the April–June quarter, as a sign that household spending was not providing strong momentum. One view said another increase could have a modest restraining effect on firms’ fixed investment and investment in housing. It described the effects on private consumption as mixed and said a significant net negative impact was unlikely.
The summary also pointed to next year’s spring wage negotiations as an indicator of whether wage and price increases will continue to reinforce one another. The BOJ’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Dec. 17–18, 2026.
