Last night the Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the minutes of its May meeting. As had already been known the majority of central bankers expect the 2% inflation target to be reached during Q2 or Q3 2016. And everyone seems…
Last night the Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the minutes of its May meeting. As had already been known the majority of central bankers expect the 2% inflation target to be reached during Q2 or Q3 2016. And everyone seems to be happy with that for the time being. "Some" central bankers are of the view that the expectations of higher inflation rates were maintained despite recently weak price developments.
An issue that is not totally irrelevant as the BoJ mainly extended its bond purchasing programme in October to prevent a relapse into a deflationary mindset.
"That confirms our view that the central bankers currently do not consider further monetary easing to be required", says Commerzbank.
The BoJ is currently relying on a notable rise in inflation in the second half of 2015 once the base effect of the fall in the oil price after July 2014 is omitted.
"If inflation does not rise then the market will soon start speculating about new monetary policy measures again, and about yen weakness. Until then the upside potential in USD-JPY is largely based on dollar strength", according to Commerzbank.
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