A Polymarket contract tied to Bitcoin (BTC) turns on a qualifying Binance price spike during October, so a single one-minute candle can decide the $85,000 target regardless of the month-end close.
At 7:49 a.m. ET Friday, the market’s Yes price was 41%, 10% below its reading 24 hours earlier.
Settlement uses Binance’s BTC/USDT one-minute record for October. A candle high of at least $85,000 during the ET month qualifies; data from other venues, pairs and spot markets is ineligible. If no qualifying candle appears by 11:59 p.m. ET Oct. 31, the outcome is No.
That makes the market a test of whether the threshold appears at any point in October, rather than a forecast of Bitcoin’s final monthly price. Kalshi’s separate month-end contracts priced Bitcoin’s $87,500 threshold at 25% and the $90,000 threshold at 13%, respectively. A previous EconoTimes comparison of Kalshi’s October targets and year-end XRP odds gives context for those separate markets.
