Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded, but investor confidence remains subdued, according to Michael Sullivan, author of Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly, whose research tracks emotional signals he says can illuminate market turning points.
Sullivan told Bitcoin Magazine in an Oct. 27 interview that economic uncertainty had not prevented Bitcoin from holding up, while apathy, fear and anger remained among investors. He called the combination an early “disbelief rally.”
Sullivan said his composite measure combines excitement, conviction and desire. It has stayed near historical lows since late June, he said. In his research, those emotions have aligned with past market highs and lows more closely than fear-and-greed measures.
He linked the sentiment decline near the June-July lows to investors shifting attention and speculative capital toward AI stocks. Sullivan said several sharp rallies from the $58,000 bottom range were followed by a quick loss of enthusiasm.
He sees current readings as closer to 2015 than to later downturns, and lower than during the 2022 bear market. Sullivan said similar readings preceded strong returns over subsequent years, while cautioning that they offer little help with short-term price moves. Those comparisons reflect his historical analysis, not a prediction of future performance.
Sullivan also discussed early research comparing purchases made amid high excitement and conviction with dollar-cost averaging, a method of investing regular amounts over time. He said purchases during those high-sentiment periods substantially underperformed dollar-cost averaging over time.
Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index recorded a neutral score of 48 on Oct. 27, as noted in EconoTimes’ coverage of the reading.
Sullivan pointed to AI agents’ use of blockchain financial tools as evidence of a practical connection between AI and Bitcoin. He said AI-driven deflation and changing equity valuations may increase Bitcoin’s appeal, and argued that Bitcoin could succeed while the current financial system remains intact.
