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Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are re-entering an accumulation phase, signaling a robust rebuilding of spot allocations and increased conviction. Data indicates that the net position change for LTHs has turned positive, and their accumulation trend score is nearing maximum levels across various wallet cohorts, particularly those holding 100 to 1,000 BTC. This widespread supply absorption is occurring while the total supply held by LTHs remains near historical highs, around 8.05 million BTC, which inherently limits the readily available liquid supply on the market.
The current market conditions suggest a healthy mid-cycle consolidation rather than an overheated bull market. The LTH-NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is in a moderate profit zone, avoiding the extremes of euphoria or capitulation, and the LTH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) hovers around the 1.0 mark, indicating that LTHs are primarily holding their positions rather than engaging in large-scale selling. Furthermore, significant exchange outflows suggest that more Bitcoin is moving into self-custody, reducing the immediate sell-side liquidity. With over 70% of the circulating supply classified as illiquid, the active trading pool is reduced, reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a digital store of value.
Network valuation metrics further support this positive outlook. The MVRV ratio indicates that the market price is safely above the aggregate cost basis of all holders, while the NUPL suggests a state of "Optimism / Anxiety" rather than irrational exuberance. Miners are operating at sustainable profit margins, as evidenced by the Puell Multiple near 1.0. Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market remains strong, between 57%–60%, indicating institutional capital is prioritizing BTC. Additionally, a balanced derivatives market with active options hedging, rather than excessive perpetual futures leverage, suggests a smoother path for price discovery and trend continuation.
