Citigroup Inc. (Citi) lowered its three-month targets for lithium chemicals and spodumene, Bloomberg reported, as the bank cited slower battery-demand growth, trade uncertainty and broader economic pressures.
The reported target for lithium carbonate is now $12,000 per ton, down from $20,000. Bloomberg said the lithium hydroxide target fell to $12,000 per ton from $17,000, while spodumene was cut to $1,200 per ton from $2,000. The outlet also reported lower estimates for all three materials through the end of 2028.
Bloomberg said Citi expects some consumers to wait before buying as the bank anticipates supply improving in 2027. The report also pointed to slower battery-demand growth, trade uncertainty and wider macroeconomic headwinds. A Citi research note quoted by Bloomberg said sentiment and positioning would be the main near-term market drivers, with risks tilted lower.
China has separately reduced the value-added tax (VAT) export rebate for battery products. The Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration set the rate at 6% from April 1 through Dec. 31, 2026, down from 9%, and scheduled its removal for Jan. 1, 2027.
Trade arrangements affecting vehicle markets are also under discussion. The European Commission said its Oct. 9 understanding with China could reduce Chinese hybrid and plug-in hybrid exports to the European Union by more than 50% over four years compared with a no-policy-change scenario. China’s Ministry of Commerce later described an arrangement based on 2025 figures and said China’s quota would be no lower than that for any other import source. The official statements did not set out matching implementation details. The next EU-China Trade and Investment Consultations ministerial meeting is scheduled for March 2027.
On Oct. 30, Yichun Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau approved the environmental-impact report for the Zhenkouli–Jianxiawo lithium mine, operated by Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. The approval does not confirm a production restart. Shanghai Metals Market reported that the operator still needs a pollutant-discharge permit and must pass acceptance checks for its environmental facilities before formal operations can begin.
